519
FXUS62 KKEY 080838
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
438 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY INTO
EARLY WEEK, SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
UNREMARKABLE WEATHER.
- MAINLY MODERATE BREEZES, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE STRAITS
WILL MODESTLY SLACKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE CENTER OF THIS
RIDGE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING
EAST BREEZES OF NEAR 15 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CHAIN AND 15 TO 20
KNOTS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AS A RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
INCHES AND 1.35 INCHES. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
THE DATE. KBYX RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN SHOWING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOWER KEYS. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS
MAINLY STRATOCUMULUS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID
70S AND DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES.
FORECAST
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL REMAIN THE MAIN DRIVER
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF. THIS CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH MAINLY EASTERLY
BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH DRIFTS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC LOOSENING ITS GRIP SOME ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AMPLE WITH EPISODIC SHOWERS
REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR EARLY
WEEK RESULTING IN SHOWERS BEING REMOVED FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
LEADING TO A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S. GUIDANCE IS NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK,
THEREFORE, THE RISK FOR ANOTHER BREEZY PERIOD HAS DIMINISHED FOR
THE TIME BEING.
LOOKING AHEAD AT THE EXTENDED, LATE THIS WEEK, THERE REMAIN
SIGNALS FOR A COLD FRONT TO POTENTIALLY TRY AND PRESS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE INTENSITY AND IF THIS FRONT WILL INDEED
PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS OR STALL NEARBY. MORE COMFORTABLE AND LESS
HUMID AIR MIGHT NOT BE DONE JUST YET ACROSS THE KEYS. HOWEVER, AS
WE CONTINUE TO MOVE DEEPER INTO THE SPRING MONTHS, IT GETS TOUGHER
FOR FRONTS TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE KEYS. STAY TUNED!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE IS HEADLINED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FOR TODAY. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
BERMUDA WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING WEST
INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS
WITH MODEST SLACKENING THEREAFTER. AS THE HIGH RETREATS INTO
ATLANTIC EARLY THIS WEEK, BREEZES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MID TO
LATE WEEK IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO FRESHENING BREEZES AND
CLOCKING BREEZES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR
BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. OCCASIONALLY, SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
AROUND FL015 TO FL025 MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE RISK IS LOW, THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN EASTERLY BETWEEN 9 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1967, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 75 82 75 / 10 10 0 10
MARATHON 83 75 83 75 / 10 10 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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