257
FXUS62 KKEY 090233
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY UNREMARKABLE WEATHER.
- GENERALLY MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EARLY
WEEK, EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (10% TO 20%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL EVENING ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS AFTER OUR
CLOCKS HAVE JUMPED AHEAD ONE HOUR. AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE KEYS ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
ACCOMPANYING DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. OUR KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN
DETECTING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAINLAND, BUT WE HAVE
NOT SEEN ANY ACTIVITY WITHIN OUR CWA. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM
THIS EVENING SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, PARTICULARLY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH A CALCULATED PWAT OF 1.27 INCHES. THIS IS
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SHY OF THE 75TH PERCENTILE, SO
WHY ISN'T THE ATMOSPHERE DOING ANYTHING WITH THIS MOISTURE? THE
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT INHIBITION, AND A ML
CAPE VALUE OF 1109 J/KG. WHILE THESE ARE USUALLY FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS FOR SOME ACTIVITY, WE ARE STILL LACKING A MEANINGFUL
LIFTING MECHANISM TO TRIGGER ANYTHING. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HI-RES
MODELS HAVE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE
(10%) OF RAIN.
UNREMARKABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE.
GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS A CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE NO METEOROLOGICAL RETURNS
BEING DETECTED BY RADAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS UNFOLDING AS
EXPECTED, AND NO CHANGES OR UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WITH THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING WEST INTO FLORIDA AND
THE GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS WITH MODEST
SLACKENING THEREAFTER. AS THE HIGH RETREATS INTO ATLANTIC EARLY
THIS WEEK, BREEZES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO FRESHENING BREEZES AND CLOCKING BREEZES
FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. FEW TO SCT DECKS WILL LINGER NEAR
FL020, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOW CHANCES, AROUND 10
PERCENT, FOR RAIN HAVE WARRANTED DRY TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 75 82 75 83 / 10 0 10 0
MARATHON 75 83 75 83 / 10 0 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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