115
FXUS62 KKEY 091406
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1006 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY UNREMARKABLE WEATHER.
- GENERALLY MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EARLY
WEEK, EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (10% TO 20%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING. DEW POINTS ARE REMAINING STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S, AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN. KBYX RADAR RETURNS ARE OBSERVING POPCORN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GOES-EAST MICROPHYSICS
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE LOW ALTITUDE CLOUD COVERAGE, WHICH
MAKES SENSE AS NOT MANY CLOUDS ARE GENERATING MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE STRAITS DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS OF
GENERATING LIFT TO FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE MORNING KKEY
SOUNDING SUPPORTED THIS PATTERN. LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND A WEAK INVERSION WAS IN PLACE AT APPROXIMATELY
4000 FEET. SAMPLED PWAT WAS BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE.
WIND SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ALONG THE REEF WHEN COMPARED TO
THE WEEKEND CONDITIONS. OVERALL, WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT LOOKS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL FOR THE KEYS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL REMAIN THE MAIN DRIVER
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA
AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GENTLE TO
MODERATE MAINLY EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP EPISODIC SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
LOOKING AHEAD AT THE EXTENDED, LATE THIS WEEK, THERE REMAIN
SIGNALS FOR A COLD FRONT TO POTENTIALLY TRY AND PRESS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER, LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR
THIS FRONT TO BE DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE KEYS. THAT BEING
SAID, ITS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION,
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AMPLE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA EMBEDDED
IN THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE, THUNDER HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEW POINTS MAY ALSO
NUDGE DOWN A FEW DEGREES MAKING THE CHANGE BARELY NOTICEABLE.
STAY TUNED!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE EXTENDING WEST INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. AS THE HIGH
RETREATS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEK, BREEZES WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF LATE WEEK WHICH
MAY CREATE FOR A CHAOTIC WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD.
STRAY CUMULUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WILL OCCASIONALLY
CAUSE CLOUD COVER NEAR EYW AND MTH. WHILE VERY UNLIKELY, SHORT
LIVED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2001, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 75 83 75 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 83 76 83 76 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page