555
FXUS62 KKEY 100844
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
444 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY UNREMARKABLE WEATHER.
- GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. INCREASING MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TOWARDS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MEAN LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE CENTER OF THIS
RIDGE REMAINS NEAR BERMUDA. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. MARINE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING MAINLY EAST
BREEZES NEAR 10 KNOTS AS A RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1 INCH
AND 1.25 INCHES. THIS IS BETWEEN THE MEAN AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE
FOR THE DATE. DUE TO THE MAINLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE KEYS, KBYX
RADAR HAS REMAINED VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. GOES 19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY STRATOCUMULUS
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
FORECAST
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL REMAIN THE MAIN DRIVER
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECAST PERIODS. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GENTLE TO
MODERATE MAINLY EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE KEYS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE RESULT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS FRONT
PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. ALSO, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LEADING TO THE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
BEING AS EARLY AS LATE WEEK. IN ADDITION, AMPLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA
EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL UNSETTLED PERIOD ARRIVING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME VERY BENEFICIAL
RAIN IS POTENTIALLY ON THE WAY IN A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DAYS. DEW
POINTS WILL ONLY SUBTLY DECREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO MAKING ANY
CHANGE BARELY NOTICEABLE.
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED, THERE MAY BE SIGNS OF YET
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS SAINT PATRICK'S DAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS TOO
FAR OUT TO HONE IN ON ANY DETAILS AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE LATER WE
GET INTO SPRING THE LESS LIKELY IT WILL BE THAT THESE FRONTS WILL
PUSH THROUGH. STAY TUNED!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE EXTENDING WEST INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. AS THE HIGH
RETREATS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK, BREEZES WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, BREEZES WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE SOMETIME
THURSDAY. SINCE THE FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA, HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL AND THUS RETURNS BREEZES BACK TO THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH MTH AND EYW TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS IF NEED BE. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EASTERLY BETWEEN 6 TO 14 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1941, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 73 83 74 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 82 75 82 75 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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