393
FXUS62 KKEY 110833
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
433 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY UNREMARKABLE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH (ESPECIALLY IN THE STRAITS) EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY, EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SLACKENING BY EARLY THURSDAY.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. INCREASING MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TOWARDS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MEAN LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE, AN
ATLANTIC HIGH REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO FLORIDA AND
THE GULF. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 15 KNOTS AS A
RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS
ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1 INCH AND 1.25 INCHES. THIS IS
BETWEEN THE MEAN AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. DUE TO THE
MAINLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE KEYS, KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED VOID OF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY STRATOCUMULUS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA
LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 70
DEGREES WITH A FEW AREAS OF LOWER 70S.
FORECAST
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL REMAIN THE MAIN DRIVER
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL START TO RETREAT
INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THURSDAY LEADING TO BREEZES SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BREEZES WILL ALSO
SLACKEN AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A PERIOD OF VARIABLE BREEZES THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT DUE TO WEAK AND NEBULOUS FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.
THE PATTERN IS ABOUT TO CHANGE ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA THURSDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE PATTERN IS
ABOUT TO BREAKDOWN. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. THAT BEING SAID, BASICALLY AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA WILL DRAW ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS AS A
RESULT. SOME DAYS MAY BE WETTER THAN OTHERS, HOWEVER, IT IS TOO
EARLY STILL TO PINPOINT THE EXACT DETAILS. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS
EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS UPON US, THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR THE AREA AS WELL AS FLORIDA IN GENERAL.
ALSO, DEW POINTS WILL ONLY SUBTLY DECREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO
MAKING ANY CHANGE BARELY NOTICEABLE.
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED, THERE MAY BE SIGNS OF YET
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS SAINT PATRICK'S DAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS TOO
FAR OUT TO HONE IN ON ANY DETAILS AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE LATER WE
GET INTO SPRING THE LESS LIKELY IT WILL BE THAT THESE FRONTS WILL
PUSH THROUGH. STAY TUNED!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IS HEADLINED ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR TODAY. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE EXTENDING WEST INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THE HIGH WILL
RETREAT FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
SHIFTING BREEZES TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
STEADILY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. BREEZES WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE SOMETIME LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED TO REACH
THE KEYS, HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL AND THUS RETURNS BREEZES
BACK TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS IF NEED BE.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 8 TO 15
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1931, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 53F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 76 84 75 / 0 0 10 20
MARATHON 83 76 83 75 / 0 0 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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