398
FXUS62 KKEY 120224
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1024 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY UNREMARKABLE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- MODERATE TO FRESH (STRONGEST IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS) EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY VEERING
TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND SLACKENING BY EARLY THURSDAY.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. INCREASING MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TOWARDS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING WESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
IN WARM AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY BELOW 700 MB. CONSEQUENTLY, SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
NEARLY NIL THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS
EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE DEGRADED QUITE A BIT BY
THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IN RESPONSE, SURFACE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARDS AS THEY CLOCK SOUTHEAST. OVERALL,
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM TO NONE OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED
DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, THE BEST LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND A WEAKENING FLOW. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT, MARINE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK
FURTHER SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHILE TRENDING DOWNWARDS. FOR THE TIME
BEING, A CAUTION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES
PLANNED FOR THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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