958
FXUS62 KKEY 121505
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1105 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE KEYS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES SLACKEN THIS
AFTERNOON TO LIGHT TO GENTLE WHILE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
- A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE IS ABOUT TO ENSUE ACROSS THE KEYS
BEGINNING TONIGHT/FRIDAY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG WITH
SOME VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS! KBYX HAS
REMAINED SHOWER FREE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND GOES-19 VISIBILE
SATELITTE REVEALS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE NEAR 80F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. ALONG THE REEF, WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. AFTER THIS AFTERNOON THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARCHES SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA. THOUGH THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR AREA IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN
CHANCES OF RAIN STARTING TONIGHT. SIMULTANEOUSLY, AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC, WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND START TO
TURN THE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. STAY TUNED FOR ANY
UPDATES TO THIS CHANGING PATTERN!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MEAN LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, AN ATLANTIC HIGH REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF BERMUDA WITH ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY EXTENDING WESTWARD
INTO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNS THIS
MORNING THAT THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
RECORDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS A
RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS
ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1 INCH AND 1.25 INCHES, THOUGH,
THERE IS A NARROW TONGUE OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES PUNCHING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYS. IT IS INTERESTING HOW
WHERE THE HIGHER ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES ARE THIS MORNING THAT THERE
IS NO ACTIVITY WHEREAS ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING
NEARSHORE WATERS, KBYX RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS
MAINLY STRATOCUMULUS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH A FEW AREAS
OF LOWER 70S.
FORECAST
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF BERMUDA WILL HANG ON ACROSS THE AREA FOR A
LITTLE BIT LONGER. HOWEVER, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO TREK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY,
THIS WILL CAUSE THE HIGH TO RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE HIGH LOOSENING ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES THIS
MORNING BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WEAK AND NEBULOUS FLOW DEVELOPS FOR TONIGHT, THERE
MAY BE A TIME PERIOD WHERE BREEZES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY. MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN
RISING RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AGAIN FOR
AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE IN EARNEST AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. THE
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE PATTERN FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FLATTENED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SMOTHERS IT TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. THAT BEING
SAID, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA WILL DRAW
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD LEADING TO INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
FRIDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.
SOME DAYS MAY BE WETTER THAN OTHERS, HOWEVER, IT STILL REMAINS TOO
EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACT DETAILS. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS EXPECT
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS UPON US,
THE ODDS ARE INCREASING FOR THE KEYS AND MUCH OF FLORIDA TO SEE
VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE STEADY AROUND 70 DEGREES OR SO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED, THERE MAY BE SIGNS OF YET
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS SAINT PATRICK'S DAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL
TOO FAR OUT TO HONE IN ON ANY DETAILS AT THIS TIME. AT THE VERY
LEAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES, DROP IN DEW
POINTS, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING.
ALSO, THE LATER WE GET INTO SPRING THE LESS LIKELY IT WILL BE THAT
THESE FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH. STAY TUNED!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL START TO PULL AWAY WHILE LOOSENING ITS GRIP ON THE
KEYS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
BREEZES BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF AND INTO DIXIE ALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND. BREEZES WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SOMETIME TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES
POSSIBLE. BREEZES WILL QUICKLY CLOCK AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC RESUMES CONTROL.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION LEAVES MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR THE TIME BEING. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY AT NEAR 10 KNOTS TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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