544
FXUS62 KKEY 130237
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A UNIFORM
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE IS SHAPING UP FOR THE KEYS DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK, AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME VERY
BENEFICIAL RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1007 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
OUR KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN BUSY TRACKING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS IT PUSHED INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. THE
INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT LOOKED QUITE
SPICY AROUND SUNSET, BUT THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT TOGETHER. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED SOME DECENT CAPE
IN THE PROFILE, BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT ULTIMATELY WON. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS TAPERED OFF, BUT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR
HAVE POINTED TO SPOTTY SHOWERS TRYING TO EITHER HANG ON OR
REIGNITE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH ISLANDS MAY SEE A FEW
RAINDROPS, AND WHICH ONES WON'T, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
THE BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE OF RAIN (30%) FOR THE KEYS.
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS ON THE MAINLAND, DIRECTLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, SHOWED AIR TEMPERATURES DROP BY APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 9
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AS THE SHOWERS PUSHED THROUGH. HOWEVER, SOME OF
THIS COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE DIURNAL PATTERN. CLOSER TO HOME,
OUR TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, SO THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT LIKELY WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES.
NO CHANGES OR UPDATES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1007 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE KEYS LOCAL
WATERS. SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE NOT LIKELY, BUT OCCASIONAL
INSTANCES OF MODERATE DOWNPOURS AND ERRATIC GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT BREEZES WILL VEER
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND WILL TAKE ON AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
RESUMES CONTROL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH ISLAND
TERMINALS. A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AROUND 03Z TO 05Z, BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
IT MAY NOT MAKE IT TO EITHER AIRFIELD. FOR NOW, OPTING TO KEEP THE
TAF PACKAGE DRY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL RESUME A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AROUND
15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 75 82 74 81 / 30 20 50 50
MARATHON 74 83 74 83 / 30 20 40 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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