163
FXUS62 KKEY 130858
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
458 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A UNIFORM
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE STRAITS LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS WITH CHANCES FOR THE
UPPER KEYS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR ALL THE KEYS.
- FURTHER INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
SOME VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS MAINLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
AND FLORIDA FOR THE TIME BEING. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE
GULF WATERS. THIS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE LOWER KEYS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AND THEN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS IN 1-2 HOURS FROM
NOW. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE RECORDING WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES OF GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AS A RESULT. GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS
SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES HIGHER THAN AT THIS SAME TIME
YESTERDAY WITH VALUES OF GENERALLY 1.4 INCHES AROUND THE KEYS.
KBYX RADAR HAS DETECTED SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AND ACROSS THE STRAITS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS
AS A RESULT. MRMS 3 HOURLY PRECIPITATION SHOWS ESTIMATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH FOR SOME UPPER KEYS COMMUNITIES
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF WINDLEY KEY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINED OVER THE STRAITS WITH MRMS ESTIMATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN VARY
QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S. THE COOL
SPOT IS BIG PINE KEY WHICH OBSERVED 69 DEGREES AS OF 338 AM EARLY
THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS ALSO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.
FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
STRAITS LATER TODAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN DEW POINTS DIPPING A
COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES FROM THE LOWER 70S INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES. MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST FOR TODAY RESULTING IN
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY STARTS TO RISE
TODAY THOUGH RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TODAY GOING FORWARD.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL LEND TO FURTHER INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER, DUE TO MOST OF THE
INGREDIENTS (INSTABILITY, TRIGGER BEING THE BOUNDARY, AND AMPLE
MOISTURE) COMING TOGETHER. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE MOST ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND AS THEY HAVE THE SEA BREEZE
TO CONTEND WITH AS WELL WHICH CAN PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT. THAT IS NOT
TO SAY A ROGUE CELL CAN'T AFFECT THE KEYS TO RESULT IN SOME
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER KEYS. OVERALL, THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. BREEZES WILL ALSO
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FRESHEN AS THE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO NUDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
PUMP UP THE DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 70S BY MONDAY.
SINCE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS UPON US, THE ODDS ARE
INCREASING FOR THE KEYS AND MUCH OF FLORIDA TO SEE VERY BENEFICIAL
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MUCH
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A "BRING IT" FRONT. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, IT STILL IS QUITE A BIT FAR OUT IN TIME BUT THERE
ARE INCREASING SIGNS FOR A COOLER PERIOD COMING FOR NEXT WEEK AND
JUST IN TIME FOR SAINT PATRICK'S DAY. THE MAIN TAKEAWAYS RIGHT
NOW ARE THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES, DROP IN
DEW POINTS, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THIS BEING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY. STAY TUNED!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENERALLY
WEAK AND NEBULOUS FLOW WILL RESULT IN VARYING BREEZES TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO FRESHENING MAINLY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES AS A RESULT. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE KEYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES CLOCKING AROUND THE
COMPASS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE ALSO
FRESHENING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE
BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS
FURTHER CLOCK TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1889, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.32 INCHES WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
JANUARY OF 1871.
OF NOTE
IN 1993, A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE ("STORM OF THE CENTURY") PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 109 MPH
IN FORT JEFFERSON, DRY TORTUGAS. 50-70 KNOT WIND GUSTS WERE
REPORTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. MISS BEHOLDING, 147-FT
FREIGHTER, RAN AGROUND ON A CORAL REEF ABOUT 10 MILES FROM KEY
WEST. FOLLOWING THE SQUALL LINE, WINDS SHIFTED OUT OF THE WEST AND
FRESHENED TO A STEADY 40 TO 45 KNOTS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR
50 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 73 83 74 / 20 40 50 50
MARATHON 82 74 82 75 / 20 40 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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