994
FXUS62 KKEY 131746
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
146 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS THE STRAITS. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER KEYS WITH CHANCES FOR THE UPPER KEYS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR ALL THE KEYS.
- FURTHER INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
SOME VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY
AS THE DAY GOES ON THEREFORE VCSH HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM EYW, BUT
INCLUDED FOR LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR MTH. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS MAINLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
AND FLORIDA FOR THE TIME BEING. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE
GULF WATERS. THIS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE LOWER KEYS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AND THEN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS IN 1-2 HOURS FROM
NOW. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE RECORDING WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES OF GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AS A RESULT. GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS
SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES HIGHER THAN AT THIS SAME TIME
YESTERDAY WITH VALUES OF GENERALLY 1.4 INCHES AROUND THE KEYS.
KBYX RADAR HAS DETECTED SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AND ACROSS THE STRAITS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS
AS A RESULT. MRMS 3 HOURLY PRECIPITATION SHOWS ESTIMATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH FOR SOME UPPER KEYS COMMUNITIES
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF WINDLEY KEY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINED OVER THE STRAITS WITH MRMS ESTIMATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN VARY
QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S. THE COOL
SPOT IS BIG PINE KEY WHICH OBSERVED 69 DEGREES AS OF 338 AM EARLY
THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS ALSO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.
FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
STRAITS LATER TODAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN DEW POINTS DIPPING A
COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES FROM THE LOWER 70S INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES. MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST FOR TODAY RESULTING IN
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY STARTS TO RISE
TODAY THOUGH RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TODAY GOING FORWARD.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL LEND TO FURTHER INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER, DUE TO MOST OF THE
INGREDIENTS (INSTABILITY, TRIGGER BEING THE BOUNDARY, AND AMPLE
MOISTURE) COMING TOGETHER. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE MOST ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND AS THEY HAVE THE SEA BREEZE
TO CONTEND WITH AS WELL WHICH CAN PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT. THAT IS NOT
TO SAY A ROGUE CELL CAN'T AFFECT THE KEYS TO RESULT IN SOME
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER KEYS. OVERALL, THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. BREEZES WILL ALSO
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FRESHEN AS THE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC BEGINS TO NUDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
PUMP UP THE DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 70S BY MONDAY.
SINCE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS UPON US, THE ODDS ARE
INCREASING FOR THE KEYS AND MUCH OF FLORIDA TO SEE VERY BENEFICIAL
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MUCH
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A "BRING IT" FRONT. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, IT STILL IS QUITE A BIT FAR OUT IN TIME BUT THERE
ARE INCREASING SIGNS FOR A COOLER PERIOD COMING FOR NEXT WEEK AND
JUST IN TIME FOR SAINT PATRICK'S DAY. THE MAIN TAKEAWAYS RIGHT
NOW ARE THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES, DROP IN
DEW POINTS, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THIS BEING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY. STAY TUNED!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. THOUGH, WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
AND CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENERALLY WEAK AND NEBULOUS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN VARYING BREEZES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FRESHENING MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES AS A RESULT.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES CLOCKING AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE ALSO FRESHENING.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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