387
FXUS62 KKEY 140745
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
345 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR A POTENTIAL REVERSE CLOUD
LINE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND
CHAIN, HOWEVER, BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HAS LED
TO BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THIS FIRST ROUND MAINLY
AFFECTED THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE KEYS. THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALSO THROUGH OUR WINDS INTO CHAOS. EAST OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY, WHILE WEST OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE NORTHERLY. TRUE TO
IT'S NAMESAKE, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE NEARLY
UNIFORM IN THE MID 70S THIS HOUR.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL NUDGE BACK TO THE
WEST TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLOWLY PIVOT AND PUSH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTHWARD, WHILE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND FRESHENING EASTERLY BREEZES. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND POOL OVER THE KEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM. RAINFALL
TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE INCH, WHICH WHILE
NOT A LOT, WILL HELP TO MAKE A DENT IN OUR ONGOING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY, WHERE A COMBINATION OF VEERING WINDS AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
THANKS TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE A
COUPLE OF FRONTS THROUGH OUR AREA STARTING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE
ARE CONSIDERED "LATE-SEASON" COLD FRONTS, WE COULD STILL SEE
RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS FILTER IN NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
MORE CHANCES TO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY
FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE KEYS, EXPECT PEAK AND
LULLS IN WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT, THEN LULL TO GENTLE TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LATE-SEASON COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY. FRESHENING NORTHERLY BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A RE-INFORCING STRONG HIGH MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CENTERED NEAR THE MTH TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE
TO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST, EXPECT GRADUALLY FRESHENING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF REVERSE CLOUD LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MTH TERMINAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 76 84 75 / 30 50 60 50
MARATHON 82 76 82 76 / 40 50 60 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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