999
FXUS62 KKEY 141405
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1005 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR A POTENTIAL REVERSE CLOUD
LINE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND
CHAIN, HOWEVER, BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES THE STRATIONARY FRONT
HAS MADE LITTLE NET PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE STRAITS, DESPITE
JUST ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG SEVERAL NARROW CUMULUS CLOUD BANDS. THE
MIDDLE KEYS FINALLY HAS RECEIVED A LITTLE RAINFALL ON THE EAST
SIDE OF MARATHON WITH SEVERAL SPOTS IN THE UPPER KEYS PICKING UP
RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN TOTAL MOISTURE - 700
MB AND BELOW - FROM LAST EVENING WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER AND WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE LAYER JUST ABOVE. INHIBITION IS QUITE WEEK AT LEAST
UP THROUGH 10-15K FEET. CONVECTIVE TEMPERAUTURES ESTIMATED NEAR
80F SHOULD BE EASY TO REACH WITH SHORT-DURATION CELLULAR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE STRAITS AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE KEYS,
DRIFTING NORTH OR NORTHEAST, AND REDEVELOPING IN SIMILAR SPOTS.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE 80S, THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
MIDDAY SHOWERS POPPING UP IN THE LOWER KEYS AS WELL. THE CHANCE
CATEGORY RAIN PROBABILITY LOOKS IN ORDER TODAY, AND WITH MAXIMUM
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY ABOVE 2K J/KG, SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HAS LED
TO BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THIS FIRST ROUND MAINLY
AFFECTED THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE KEYS. THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALSO THROUGH OUR WINDS INTO CHAOS. EAST OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY, WHILE WEST OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE NORTHERLY. TRUE TO
IT'S NAMESAKE, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE NEARLY
UNIFORM IN THE MID 70S THIS HOUR.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL NUDGE BACK TO THE
WEST TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLOWLY PIVOT AND PUSH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTHWARD, WHILE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND FRESHENING EASTERLY BREEZES. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND POOL OVER THE KEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM. RAINFALL
TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE INCH, WHICH WHILE
NOT A LOT, WILL HELP TO MAKE A DENT IN OUR ONGOING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY, WHERE A COMBINATION OF VEERING WINDS AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
THANKS TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE A
COUPLE OF FRONTS THROUGH OUR AREA STARTING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE
ARE CONSIDERED "LATE-SEASON" COLD FRONTS, WE COULD STILL SEE
RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS FILTER IN NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
MORE CHANCES TO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THIS MORNING, WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR OR JUST UNDER 10
KNOTS WITH SEAS MEASURED AT SATAN SHOAL JUST OVER 1 FOOT AND
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE EAST WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE KEYS, EXPECT PEAK AND LULLS IN WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED AT
NIGHT, THEN LULL TO GENTLE TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY. WE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. FRESHENING NORTHERLY BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A RE-INFORCING STRONG HIGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VICINITY SHOWERS WERE INSERTED A LITTLE EARLY FOR KMTH, OTHERWISE
MONITORING FOR A SIMILAR ADDITION FOR KEYW MIDDAY THROUGH
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO HANG IN A COUPLE MORE HOURS FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT LIGHT SPEEDS BEFORE VEERING EASTERLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....JR
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