213
FXUS62 KKEY 141849
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHERNMOST UPPER KEYS.
- A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND
CHAIN, HOWEVER, BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
CONCERNING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN STRAITS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT,
WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE, IS ATTEMPTING TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. GOES PRECITABLE WATER ESTIMATES SHOW
THE NORTHERLY CREEP OF GREATER- THAN 1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE KEYS AND EVERGLADES NEAR A WELL-DEFINED
GRADIENT IN DEEP (AND PER SOUNDING AND GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS, MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE). WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED, EXPECTED A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO BOOST MIXED LEVEL CAPE TOWARDS THE MOST-UNSTABLE
PROJECTIONS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE MAINLAND NEAR OUR FAR UPPER KEYS. ADDED
SOME LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WORDING, AS SOME OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE CERTAINTLY GOING TO ADD TO THE MIX WITH THE
REGENERATIVE ISLAND CLOUD LINES WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
RATHER WEAK. MOS GUIDANCE IS AGAIN ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES, BUT
COVERAGE COULD BE TRICKIER OVERNIGHT ONCE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO A STEADIER 10 TO 15 MPH AND ONLY AN OFFSHORE NORTH
COAST CUBA BOUNDARY TO FOCUS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HAS LED
TO BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THIS FIRST ROUND MAINLY
AFFECTED THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE KEYS. THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALSO THROUGH OUR WINDS INTO CHAOS. EAST OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY, WHILE WEST OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE NORTHERLY. TRUE TO
IT'S NAMESAKE, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE NEARLY
UNIFORM IN THE MID 70S THIS HOUR.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL NUDGE BACK TO THE
WEST TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLOWLY PIVOT AND PUSH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTHWARD, WHILE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND FRESHENING EASTERLY BREEZES. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND POOL OVER THE KEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM. RAINFALL
TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE INCH, WHICH WHILE
NOT A LOT, WILL HELP TO MAKE A DENT IN OUR ONGOING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY, WHERE A COMBINATION OF VEERING WINDS AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
THANKS TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE A
COUPLE OF FRONTS THROUGH OUR AREA STARTING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE
ARE CONSIDERED "LATE-SEASON" COLD FRONTS, WE COULD STILL SEE
RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS FILTER IN NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
MORE CHANCES TO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
EAST WINDS WERE CURRENTLY EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH
SEAS AT SATAN SHOAL MEASURED AT ABOUT 1.5 FEET PREDOMINATELY FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, COMBINED WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTING NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO DICTATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER,
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CLOCKING AROUND THE COMPASS, THEN FRESHENING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH BY EARLY TUESDAY. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VICINITY SHOWERS WERE ADDED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING DUE TO CLOUD LINE ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER KEYS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEARING THE EASTERN VICINITY OF KMTH. WINDS WERE
STILL LIGHT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WERE VEERING MORE EASTERLY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WAX AND
WANE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH TIMING DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN FOR
THE 18Z TAFS, SOME TEMPOS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.
OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE VEERING OF WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KNOTS BY
15/12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 76 84 75 84 / 50 60 50 50
MARATHON 76 82 76 83 / 50 60 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....JR
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