856
FXUS62 KKEY 150233
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE WATERS, BUT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.
- A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND
CHAIN, HOWEVER, BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENING SHIFT WAS SMOOTH SAILING AS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TAPERED OFF BY AROUND 5 PM. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED A MIX OF LOW LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME HIGHER
LEVEL CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVER CUBA. OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS, TOWERING THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFFSHORE OF CUBA
CREPT INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITHIN OUR CWA. RADAR RETURNS
CURRENTLY SHOW THAT SHOWERS ARE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS, BUT A COUPLE OF NEW AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS TRACKING NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD, SO CARRYING THE INHERITED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING SHOWS AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE
OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN. MLCAPE WAS
CALCULATED TO BE JUST OVER 1000 J/KG, AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
FAIRLY MOIST, BUT SOME INTRUSIONS OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY PREVENT
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM BUILDING TALL ENOUGH TO BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE LEANING WARM AS OUR AUTOMATED
OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING VALUES NEAR 80F. THE WARMEST
OBSERVATION IS COMING FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WITH
81F. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD ACT
AS INSULATION, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ONLY COME DOWN TO THE MID
70S. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED, AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, COMBINED WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT DRIFTING NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DICTATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER, MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES CLOCKING
AROUND THE COMPASS, THEN FRESHENING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BY EARLY TUESDAY. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD, BUT A MIX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MAY
APPROACH, AND CROSSOVER, BOTH TERMINALS AT ANY POINT IN THE
PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR CIGS, BUT
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN INTERMITTENT VIS
REDUCTIONS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER RESPONSIBLE FOR
AIRFIELD CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEFORE 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 76 84 75 84 / 50 60 50 50
MARATHON 76 82 76 83 / 50 60 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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