530
FXUS62 KKEY 010837
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
437 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES STRETCHES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- THE FAST FLOW AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EVEN THOUGH SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
ENOUGH TO DENT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, MAINLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS A GENERALLY STAGNANT PATTERN REMAINS
IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNS THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO
GIVE A LITTLE BIT WITH SOME TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EMERGING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO. TO THE EAST OF THIS
TROUGH, RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND FLORIDA AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS, EXPANSIVE AND DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
WITH THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES.
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS WEST TO FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF. WITH LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST, THIS IS KEEPING A STRENGTHENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
ARE RECORDING MAINLY EAST BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A RESULT.
GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED
PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
IS CLOSE TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN
MOSTLY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT SHOWING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS MOVING FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE EARLIER ACTIVITY NEAR
THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS FIZZLED WITH THE ONLY ACTIVITY REMAINING
ACROSS THE DISTANT STRAITS. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY
SHOWS MOSTLY STRATOCUMULUS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE KEYS RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
60S.
FORECAST
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC (NEAR THE
AZORES) WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS EXPANSIVE HIGH EXTENDS IN
THE SOUTHEAST U.S., FLORIDA, AND THE EASTERN GULF. THEREFORE,
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A RESULT. MOISTURE UNDULATIONS AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN EPISODIC SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS WETTER THAN OTHERS.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED INSTABILITY, IT
WASN'T ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE, THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, OCCASIONALLY NEAR 70 DEGREES.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY BREAKDOWN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME
THAT THE HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC WILL RETREAT AWAY FROM THE AREA
ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A DECREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
RESULT.
IN ADDITION, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL POTENTIALLY SEND
ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. ALSO, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A RATHER
VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER BLOW ACROSS THE
KEYS THAN THIS LATEST ONE. STAY TUNED!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IS
HEADLINED FOR ALL THE REMAINING FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
FROM SYNOPSIS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER EAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
EASTERLY FRESH BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY STRONG, ESPECIALLY IN THE
STRAITS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. BREEZES WILL ALSO
OCCASIONALLY PEAK OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND LULL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
AND ACROSS THE SE GULF.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY EASTERLY BETWEEN 10 AND 17 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. ALSO, SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1961, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.70" WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 74 82 74 / 20 10 10 20
MARATHON 81 73 82 74 / 10 10 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ052>055-
072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page