037
FXUS62 KKEY 020254
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1054 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- THE FAST FLOW AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS FLORIDA WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WEATHER CONDITIONS BREEZY, BUT
MOSTLY DRY, THROUGH THE EVENING SHIFT AS APRIL FOOLS DAY COMES TO
AN END. THE SPARSE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE KEYS HAVE
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
NEAR 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALL TOGETHER, WHILE THE BREEZY
WEATHER MAY BE ANNOYING, THINGS DON'T FEEL TOO BAD OUTSIDE THIS
EVENING.
EVEN WITHOUT A NOTABLE LIFTING MECHANISM, THE COMBINATION OF
MODEST MOISTURE UNDULATIONS AND AREAS OF SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE HAVE RESULTED IN A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS BEING PICKED
UP BY OUR KBYX RADAR. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 KNOTS, OR NEAR 17 MPH, AND IT'S CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE KEYS
WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT. TAKING
INTO CONSIDERATION THAT THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING
SAMPLED A REASONABLY MOIST LOWER LEVEL, AND A FEW POCKETS OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT, SO WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED THROUGH THE
EVENING, THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A REASON TO SUGGEST THAT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.CARRYING THE INHERITED 10%
POPS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE.
THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THIS EVENING UPDATE WAS EXTENDING THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS
DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES AS
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH SCT TO
OCCASIONALLY BKN DECKS NEAR FL030. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR EITHER TERMINAL, BUT OPTING TO KEY TAFS DRY FOR
NOW UNTIL ACTIVITY DRIFTS CLOSER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 74 82 74 83 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON 73 82 74 82 / 10 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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