632
FXUS62 KKEY 020833
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
433 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- THE FAST FLOW AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EVEN THOUGH SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
ENOUGH TO DENT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
AN EXPANSIVE AND STRONG DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE IS PLANTED ACROSS A
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH TO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THE
PATTERN GETS COMPLICATED IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH MOSTLY UPPER
TROUGHING DOMINATING MUCH OF THE U.S. HEARTLAND. AN EXTENSION OF
THIS TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF SOUTH TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE, LOWER PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST DUE TO THE HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE,
MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE KEYS ARE OBSERVING MAINLY EAST
BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2
TO 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. KBYX RADAR SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ACROSS
THE LOWER KEYS AND THE SURROUNDING NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY STRATOCUMULUS
ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN
THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FORECAST
EXPANSIVE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
EXPANSIVE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S., FLORIDA, AND THE
EASTERN GULF. THEREFORE, EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. MOISTURE
UNDULATIONS AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN EPISODIC
SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS WETTER THAN OTHERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S. DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO REMAIN QUITE STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, OCCASIONALLY
NEAR 70 DEGREES. THERE IS ONE THING TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. IT IS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR THE
MOST PART IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN AN OPEN LOW INSTEAD
OF CLOSED BUT THERE ARE TIME FRAMES WHERE IT MAY CLOSE OFF. IF IT
CAN REMAIN CLOSED OFF IT WILL ONLY SLOWLY ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD
PROLONGING THE TIME IT TAKES TO LEAVE THE AREA. THIS MAY TRY TO
INSTIGATE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ROBUST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE THINGS WORKING FOR AND AGAINST THIS
THOUGH. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL FOR NOW BUT WE LACK THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THIS SWITCHES TO WHERE WE
HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT LITTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
THERE REMAIN SIGNALS THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY BREAKDOWN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH IN THE
ATLANTIC WILL RETREAT AWAY FROM THE AREA ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A RESULT.
THIS WILL FINALLY LEAD TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS COMING TO AN END
FOR THE KEYS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.
IN ADDITION, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL POTENTIALLY
SEND ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS. ALSO, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A RATHER VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONGER BLOW ACROSS THE KEYS THAN THIS LATEST ONE.
DETAILS REMAIN FUZZY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT IT APPEARS ANOTHER
BREEZY TO WINDY, POTENTIALLY VERY WINDY PERIOD MAY BE ON THE WAY
FOR THE KEYS. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO A WETTER REGIME ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY AND
DURATION FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT REMAIN UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS HEADLINED
ACROSS THE REMAINING FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS,
EXCEPT FOR HAWK CHANNEL WHERE IT COULD BE AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM SYNOPSIS, EXPANSIVE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES,
OCCASIONALLY STRONG IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT TO THE EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN SLACKENING BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DUE EAST BETWEEN 11 AND 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE
TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY BEING UNCERTAIN, VCSH
WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1987, AFTER A HIGH OF 65F AND LOW OF 56F THE
PREVIOUS DAY (THE 1ST), THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 48F AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON THE 2ND SHATTERED THE COLD RECORD FOR THE
DATE. IT IS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST IN
THE MONTH OF APRIL (WITH THE NEXT-LOWEST BEING 54F IN 1891), AND
THE NEXT-LATEST SUB-50F READING EVER IS 49F ON MARCH 4, 1980 AND
47F ON MARCH 3RD, 1986. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
ALSO, ON THIS DAY IN 1987, THE RECORD COLD HIGH OF 63F WAS
RECORDED IN MARATHON. THIS IS ALSO THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE
EVER RECORDED IN APRIL FOR THE MARATHON AREA. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO JUNE 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 75 83 75 / 20 30 10 10
MARATHON 82 75 82 75 / 30 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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