611
FXUS62 KKEY 030325
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1125 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA
KEYS MARINE ZONES, EXCLUDING FLORIDA BAY WHERE SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
- A RELATIVELY DRIER POCKET OF AIR FILTERING IN WILL HELP TO KEEP
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT BAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY, ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
OUR KBYX RADAR HAS HAD A BUSY EVENING SHIFT COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERCOLATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
KEYS. HOWEVER, ONE PARTICULAR AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE UPPER
KEYS SUPPORTED A HEFTIER THUNDERSTORM AROUND SUNSET. THE MARINE
PLATFORM AT CARYSFORT REEF LIGHT REPORTED A WIND GUST ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM OF 44 KNOTS, OR 55 MPH, AT 7:08 PM. MRMS
ESTIMATED RAINFALL SUGGESTS PRECIP TOTALS WITH THIS ENHANCED
ACTIVITY WERE UP TO AROUND 1.35", BUT THE HIGHER VALUES WERE
MAINLY SEEN OVER THE NEARBY WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THIS SPECIFIC
CELL, LIGHT SHOWERS THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN HAVE ONLY BROUGHT ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
NEARLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY, A LARGER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
CIMSS PWAT INDICATES THAT THERE IS A POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THAT AREA, AS WELL AS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA, LIKELY DRIVING MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM KKEY THIS EVENING SHOWS PLENTY OF CAPE FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO PLAY WITH, CALCULATE ML CAPE OF 1934 J/KG. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, RADAR IS TRENDING QUIETER BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY.
SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS SUGGESTS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR,
PWATS AROUND 1.35", FILTERING IN. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM IN PLACE, ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. NO CHANGES ARE PROPOSED WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
LOCAL WATERS, EXCEPT IN FLORIDA BAY WHERE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED, OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN WILL HELP TO DIMINISH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
.AVIATION…
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CHANGE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR INTERMITTENTLY DUE
TO LOWER CIGS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
STEADY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME BY AROUND 12Z. VERY ISOLATED
POP UP SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR EITHER TERMINAL, BUT OPTING TO KEEP
THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE DRY DUE TO THE SPARSE NATURE OF THESE
SHOWERS. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS, BUT THERE ARE NO CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 75 83 75 83 / 30 10 10 10
MARATHON 75 82 75 82 / 20 10 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ032>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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