231
FXUS62 KKEY 041520
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1120 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS MARINE
ZONES.
- A DRIER POCKET OF AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT
BAY WITH ONLY SPOTTY, ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A WELL-MIXED LAYER FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 930 MB, CAPPED BY A SERIES OF MODESTLY
STABLE LAYERS UP TO AROUND 825 MB, THEN A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE BETWEEN 825-790 MB. GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DETECTING ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULI THROUGHOUT THE KEYS
MARINE ZONES, WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THE BREEZY EASTERLIES HAS ALSO SUPPORTED RAPIDLY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY NEAR 80F AT ALL AVAILABLE
LAND-BASED SURFACE PLATFORMS.
A RATHER ROUTINE FORECAST FOR TODAY, WITH A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND THE MIDPOINT BETWEEN THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND BERMUDA DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. ONLY
SLIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SPEED
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NOW NEAR 80F SURFACE WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC.
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS LATE MORNING UPDATE FORECAST
ITERATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH BREEZES WILL LULL THIS AFTERNOON OWED TO
HEATING OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND, AN EVENING NOCTURNAL SURGE
IS EXPECTED, SUPPORTING CONTINUATION OF THIS ADVISORY AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN DURING THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FRESHEN BY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY MONDAY NIGHT, AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUPPORTING BRIEF BOUTS OF
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 73 83 73 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON 82 73 82 74 / 10 20 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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