058
FXUS62 KKEY 041742
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
142 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE
WINDS DECREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS MARINE ZONES.
- ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT,
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR SURFACE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE BRIEF BOUTS OF
MVFR CIGS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START
TO CHANGE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY
TO DISPLACE THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND WEAKEN THE BROAD RIDGE THAT HAS
MAINTAINED THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BY SUNDAY
TO MONDAY. SLACKENING WINDS DOES NOT MEAN THE DIRECTION IS LIKELY
TO SHIFT, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO WASH OVER THE
KEYS THROUGH SUNDAY TO MONDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF. WHAT
REMAINS OF THE BOUNDARY COULD REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS BY MID WEEK
AND PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A WELL DEVELOPED HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WOULD BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH, AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY PERIOD FOR THE
KEYS NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT
SHOW CONSENSUS ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS AT THIS TIME. THE
SPREAD FROM THE NBM SHOWS A RANGE OF OVER 20 MPH AT EYW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SO DETAILS ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MIDWEEK RAINFALL. CONSIDERING
THE EXTENDED DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MUCH
APPRECIATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH BREEZES WILL LULL THIS AFTERNOON OWED TO
HEATING OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND, AN EVENING NOCTURNAL SURGE
IS EXPECTED, SUPPORTING CONTINUATION OF THIS ADVISORY AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN DURING THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FRESHEN BY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY MONDAY NIGHT, AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 73 83 73 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON 82 73 82 74 / 10 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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