446
FXUS62 KKEY 061807
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
207 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS BRINGING LIGHT, BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT,
RAINFALL.
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WETTER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAY RETURN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
AFTERNOON SHOWERS NEAR BOTH TERMINALS MAY LEAD TO OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIG OBSERVATIONS, BUT THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL REMAIN
VFR. SCT TO BKN DECKS ARE SITTING BETWEEN FL030 AND 040. A WINDOW
WITHOUT VCSH WAS PUT IN BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z, BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY WAX AND WANE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
LATER THIS WEEK, THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLICATED. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCENDING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UNCERTAINTIES
REVOLVE AROUND WHERE, EXACTLY, THE FRONT STALLS. RECENT
STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH.
THIS SCENARIO PLACES A GENERAL WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THESE CONDITIONS COULD
START AS SOON AS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN MOISTURE REPLACES THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT.
IN CONTRAST TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE WIND FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS DEPENDS ON WHERE AND WHEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY IS
ALMOST 13 MPH. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS FAVORS LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE KEYS, GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AFTER THE BOUNDARY STALLS, AND THEN FRESHENING
TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER THE ATLANTIC
HIGH REBUILDS ENOUGH TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE
PATTERN IS COMPLEX, AND IT WILL NOT BE A SHOCK IF THE WIND
FORECAST CHANGES BY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH APPRECIATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, WHETHER GENTLE OR FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE KEYS WATERS BEFORE THE WEEKEND
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES. THE CURRENT FORECAST
PLACES MORE CONFIDENCE ON THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE OUR
LOCAL GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 72 81 69 / 20 30 40 40
MARATHON 82 72 80 70 / 20 40 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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