550
FXUS62 KKEY 081528
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1128 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WAX AND WANE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE OUT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS
BECAUSE OF A STRONG NORTHWEST SWELL.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE
BEEN LINGERING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA A MAJORITY OF THE
MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CAN BE SEEN ON GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELITTE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE NEARING 80F WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F.
ALONG THE REEF, NORTHEAST WINDS ARE BEING RECORDED AT NEAR 10
KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AIDED BY THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT (1.67 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THIS MORNING'S
12Z KKEY SOUNDING). WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL GREET THOSE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE KEYS
COASTAL WATERS, PROVIDING A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE MOISTURE-RICH
ENVIRONMENT. LAST NIGHT'S KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENTAL
PWAT ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY, WHICH IS CORROBORATED
BY GOES-EAST DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER. WHILE MOISTURE AND A
SOURCE OF LIFT ARE PRESENT, THE FRONT HAS LOST MOST OF ITS
CHARACTERISTICS. BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS ARE NORTHEASTERLY ALONG
THE REEF AND IN THE BAYSIDE WATERS. A CLEAR DIFFERENCE IN DEW
POINT IS NOT OBVIOUS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA COMPARED TO THE KEYS.
THE FRONT IS A LINGERING BOUNDARY THAT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO WAX
AND WANE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
DAMP AND HUMID DAY.
THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT DOES CAUSE A COUPLE OF ISSUES.
GALE FORCE BREEZES ARE PRESENT ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHICH
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ELEVATED SWELL IN THE WESTERN WATERS.
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
WATERS SOMETIME ON THURSDAY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY START AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO FILTER INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEW POINTS WILL
STAY CLOSER TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGH SATURDAY. NUMERICAL MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY TO
MONDAY TO REACH THE KEYS. AFTER THE DRY AIR MOVES IN, THERE IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRIER, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND OF
PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERNS CONTINUES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE WESTERN MARINE ZONES
DUE TO A NORTHWEST SWELL. WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE KEYS BY TOMORROW MORNING. DRY AIR AND FRESH BREEZES WILL SURGE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE STRAITS A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT EITHER ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page