674
FXUS62 KKEY 090401
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1201 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WAX AND WANE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
- COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE OUT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS
BECAUSE OF A STRONG NORTHWEST SWELL.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER WILL LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
UPDATING TO INCLUDE THE ADDITION OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WE HAVE HAD A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING! DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS, THERE WAS
AN ELONGATED BAND OF SHOWERS SITTING ACROSS THE DISTANT FLORIDA
STRAITS, SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. IT ALMOST LOOKED LIKE THIS BAND
WAS CRAWLING TOWARD KEY WEST, BUT IT WAS GRADUALLY FIZZLING OUT AS
IT MOVED. WHILE THIS WAS HAPPENING, A LINE OF SHOWERS FORMED
DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. THIS LINE DIDN'T LAST
LONG, AND THE SCARCE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WE HAVE AVAILABLE ONLY
SHOWED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. JUST AFTER
DINNERTIME, MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED OUTSIDE OF
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. EVEN
WITHOUT THE SHOWERS, THERE WAS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO MAKE OUR
PART OF THE "SUNSHINE STATE" FEEL LIKE FALSE ADVERTISING. BASED ON
SPC UPPER AIR MAPS, A JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM WAS CENTERED OVER THE AREA JUST TO OUR NORTH. BRING ON
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THIS STREAK IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH
DEVELOPMENT. MESOANALYSIS ALSO POINTED TO AN AREA OF SURFACE LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE, ANOTHER COMPONENT THAT ISN'T FAVORABLE FOR AN ACTIVE
ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER, OUR KBYX RADAR IS CURRENTLY DETECTING A NEW ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS, AND PROBABLY THE
LOWER KEYS BY THE TIME WE SEND THIS EVENING DISCUSSION OUT TO THE
WORLD. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE EVERGLADES TRACKED
SOUTHWARD OFF OF THE PENINSULA AROUND 7:30 PM, AND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHED AHEAD OF IT. A HANDFUL OF MARINE PLATFORMS
REPORTED WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS, OR 29 MPH, AS THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH. CURRENTLY, RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL
SUGGESTS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
ACROSS THE MIDDLE KEYS, WHERE THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY VALUES ARE
OCCURRING. THESE SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING SOUTHWARD, SO THE LOWER
KEYS MAY BE ABLE TO GET SOME MOISTURE AS LONG AS OUR UNSUPPORTIVE
ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T PUT A LID ON THESE SHOWERS.
TAKING THIS ACTIVITY INTO CONSIDERATION, IT'S POSSIBLE THE OUTFLOW
CAN TRIGGER NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY. COUPLED WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS AS SEEN ON THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING
FROM KKEY, CARRYING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SEEMS REASONABLE. NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING
UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF HAWK
CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS DUE TO A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. EVEN THOUGH THE BACKGROUND BREEZES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE, ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS MAY
LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC BREEZES AND HIGHER/ROUGH SEAS. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WILL ENCOURAGE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE COURSE OF THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS
DUE TO CIGS AT VARYING LEVELS. LOWEST CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR
FL010 TO 020, SO VIRTUALLY EACH OBSERVATION WILL COME IN WITH A
DIFFERENT CLOUD HEIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NEAR 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS MAY BRING INFREQUENT
GUSTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ042-052-072.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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