817
FXUS62 KKEY 091731
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
131 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH AN OCCASIONAL LULL, ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE OUT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS
BECAUSE OF A STRONG NORTHEAST SWELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THORUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
THEREFORE VCSH IS INCLUDED THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. FROM
SYNOPSIS, A PRONOUNCED WIND SURGE MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATE LAST NIGHT. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
TO FRESHEN TODAY AS RESULT, THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE
EASTERN STRAITS DUE TO A NORTHEAST SWELL. DRIER AIR AND FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND, AND ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
FLORIDA KEYS LOCALS IN THE UPPER KEYS MAY HAVE WOKEN UP EARLY TO
SUDDEN GUSTS SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BREEZES AT CARYSFORT REEF
LIGHT WERE MEASURED GUSTING TO 34 KNOTS BEFORE 1 AM, AND THOSE
GUSTS EXPANDED INTO FLORIDA BAY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HARBOR
KEY MEASURED GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE CULPRIT ENDED UP BEING THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A WIND SURGE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG
TO GALE FORCE WINDS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
COMPLICATING FEATURE IS THAT THE WIND GRADIENT IS VERY SHARP. A
NEARLY 10 KNOT DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS WAS PRESENT FROM
CARYSFORT REEF LIGHT TO ALLIGATOR REEF LIGHT. THE WIND SURGE MOVED
SOUTH MUCH FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
ASIDE FROM THE ELEVATED WINDS, A COUPLE OF OTHER FEATURES
INDICATE THAT A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING FORCED SOUTH
AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS. GOES-EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN, AND THE AIRPORT TERMINALS HAVE SAMPLED CEILINGS
BELOW 3000 FEET. SHALLOW SHOWERS DETECTED BY THE KBYX RADAR ARE
NOW MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY, INSTEAD OF MAINTAINING ANY NORTHERLY
COMPONENTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM GOES EAST ALSO SHOWS SINKING
AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TOWARDS THE
KEYS. THE MOIST REGIME THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS IS
STARTING TO COME TO AN END.
FORECAST
ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS FORCED SOUTH TOWARDS CUBA, THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE KEYS WILL BECOME MORE PREDICTABLE. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PUSH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SOUTH INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. ALOFT, A VERY PROMINENT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND CHAOTIC
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RECENT STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CALCULATED HE 10TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE WIND SPEED SPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND TO BE BETWEEN THE
LOWER AND UPPER 20S. DRY, BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE SET TO RETURN
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STARGAZING ONCE THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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