312
FXUS62 KKEY 100325
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1125 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS OUT FOR THE UPPER KEYS BECAUSE OF
A STRONG NORTHEAST SWELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
ON AND OFF SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING SHIFT,
BUT THE MOST PRODUCTIVE SHOWERS STAYED OFFSHORE. RADAR ESTIMATED
RAINFALL TOTALS POINT TO ONE AREA OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS
WHERE APPROXIMATELY 1.70” FELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
“BULLSEYE” WAS JUST SOUTHWEST OF COSGROVE SHOAL LIGHT WHERE
APPROXIMATELY 0.70” OF RAIN FELL. AT THIS TIME, OUR KBYX RADAR IS
STILL HARD AT WORK DETECTING POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z KKEY AND KMFL
(MIAMI) SOUNDINGS BOTH OFFERED SOME INSIGHT AS TO WHY THIS
ACTIVITY HAS PREVAILED. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IN THE VERTICAL
PROFILE IS CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS, AROUND 700MB. VORTICITY
STACKED THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIKELY WORKING WITH THIS
MOISTURE TO KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. WITHOUT MUCH OF A
PATTERN CHANGE OVERNIGHT, THE INHERITED 30 PERCENT POP SEEMS
REASONABLE TO CARRY ON. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
SHALLOW, AND THERE IS A DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR ALOFT, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY UNLIKELY.
WHAT HAS BEEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ARE THE WIND OBSERVATIONS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MARINE PLATFORMS. THROUGHOUT VIRTUALLY ALL
OF THIS SHIFT, THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG HAWK
CHANNEL WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WERE REPORTED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS,
OR 23 TO 29 MPH. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0156Z SHOWED A BLANKET OF WINDS
NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS AROUND THE BAHAMAS, SO THE GRADIENT
WIND IS HOLDING UP WELL ACROSS THE AREA, IN GENERAL. ON LAND,
WINDS HAVE GUSTED FREQUENTLY TO NEAR 25 MPH, OR NEAR 22 KNOTS,
JUST A LITTLE LESS THAN WHAT IS OVER THE WATER DUE TO SURFACE
FRICTION. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT THESE WINDS AREN'T GOING
ANYWHERE QUITE YET. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
NARROW WINDOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING WHERE BREEZES MAY COME DOWN
A NOTCH, BUT THEY'LL RAMP BACK UP SHORTLY AFTER. NO UPDATES OR
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THIS EVENING DISCUSSION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN STRAITS
DUE TO A NORTHEAST SWELL. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO
PLACE, BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WIDELY SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND
FL025 AND 030, BUT CLOUD COVER IS FRAGMENTED. NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE PERIOD, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
VICINITY SHOWERS AT THE START OF THE TAF PACKAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 73 82 73 82 / 30 30 20 10
MARATHON 74 81 73 81 / 30 30 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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