744
FXUS62 KKEY 100805
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
405 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND AT LEAST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
- SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SHOWERS DROP OUT OF THE FORECAST BY
SATURDAY.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS OUT FOR THE UPPER KEYS BECAUSE OF
A STRONG NORTHEAST SWELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET UP OVER THE CAROLINAS YESTERDAY
AND PUSHED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAR SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. DESPITE
THE BOUNDARY BEING LOCATED NEAR CUBA, SINKING AIR HAS NOT BEEN
ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE KEYS. DEW POINTS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. THE KBYX RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS,
THOUGH SHOWERS ARE CAPPED BELOW ABOUT 10,000 FEET. ALL SIGNS POINT
TO WEATHER BEING DRIER AND BREEZY ACROSS THE KEYS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE PRETTY LONG LASTING.
STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CALCULATED A VERY SMALL SPREAD IN WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE, ABOUT 5 MPH, ACROSS
THE CWA. MEANWHILE, THE REGION OF SINKING AIR ALOFT IS ON TRACK TO
MOVE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE KEYS. FOR BETTER OR WORSE, MODEL
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD TAKE
THESE BREEZES INTO ACCOUNT, BECAUSE ODDS ARE THEY WILL BE
STICKING AROUND FOR A WHILE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE BREEZES WILL NOT
BEGIN TO SLACKEN TO MODERATE TO FRESH UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS, SO
OCCASIONAL SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH EYW AND MTH.
SHALLOW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SHORT LIVED MVFR
CIGS NEAR BOTH TERMINALS, AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
FORM SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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