921
FXUS62 KKEY 101511
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1111 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
- SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BY SATURDAY REDUCING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS OUT FOR THE UPPER KEYS BECAUSE OF
A STRONG NORTHEAST SWELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL START TO THE DAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX
RADAR HAS DETECTED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WAXING AND WANING THE
DISTANT STRAITS THIS MORNING BUT FOR NOW RADAR IS SHOWER FREE.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE IN STORE MAKING FOR A PRETTY DAY OUTSIDE.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
ALONG THE REEF, WINDS ARE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY AT NEAR 20 KNOTS.
AS MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THIS UPDATE PACKAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET UP OVER THE CAROLINAS YESTERDAY
AND PUSHED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAR SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. DESPITE
THE BOUNDARY BEING LOCATED NEAR CUBA, SINKING AIR HAS NOT BEEN
ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE KEYS. DEW POINTS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. THE KBYX RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS,
THOUGH SHOWERS ARE CAPPED BELOW ABOUT 10,000 FEET. ALL SIGNS POINT
TO WEATHER BEING DRIER AND BREEZY ACROSS THE KEYS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE PRETTY LONG LASTING.
STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CALCULATED A VERY SMALL SPREAD IN WIND
SPEEDS BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE, ABOUT 5 MPH, ACROSS
THE CWA. MEANWHILE, THE REGION OF SINKING AIR ALOFT IS ON TRACK TO
MOVE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE KEYS. FOR BETTER OR WORSE, MODEL
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD TAKE
THESE BREEZES INTO ACCOUNT, BECAUSE ODDS ARE THEY WILL BE
STICKING AROUND FOR A WHILE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE BREEZES WILL
NOT BEGIN TO SLACKEN TO MODERATE TO FRESH UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS, SO
OCCASIONAL SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS MOISTURE STILL LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NO MENTION WAS NECESSARY IN TAFS DUE TO
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF SHOWERS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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