886
FXUS62 KKEY 110213
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1013 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
- SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BY SATURDAY REDUCING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER KEYS DUE TO
A STRONG NORTHEAST SWELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. TO PUT IT INTO PERSPECTIVE, THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM 48 HOURS AGO CALCULATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.68" WHILE
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING ONLY CALCULATED 1.25". MOST OF
THIS WATER IS CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS, SO THE CURRENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS BOTH SHALLOW AND
QUICK-MOVING. IF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN,
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL, AT BEST. SATELLITE DATA ESTIMATES
PWAT VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH ARE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA, SO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE, 10%, OF RAIN FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE.
BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND STILL DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY ARE SLACKENING
ANYTIME SOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THIS IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. MARINE PLATFORMS HAVE
REPORTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS, SINCE WE SEE LESS FRICTION OVER
THE WATERS. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN
HAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 23 MPH, OR NEAR 20 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS NEAR 28 MPH, OR NEAR 25 KNOTS.
THIS DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS. NO CHANGES ARE
PROPOSED WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL FLORIDA KEYS
LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE BREEZES WILL NOT BEGIN TO SLACKEN
TO MODERATE TO FRESH UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS, SO OCCASIONAL SHALLOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH FEW TO
OCCASIONALLY SCT SKIES BASED NEAR FL030. OPTING TO KEEP BOTH TAFS
DRY AS THE CURRENT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA IS IN THE
PROCESS OF GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF
13 TO 17 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO FREQUENTLY GUST ANYWHERE FROM 20
TO ALMOST 30 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 72 81 73 82 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 72 81 73 81 / 20 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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