996
FXUS62 KKEY 111536
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1136 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
- WHILE PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLIES, RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT, WITH LITTLE
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS. THE
MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SEEN ON KBYX
RADAR. THIS MORNING'S 12Z KKEY SOUNDING REVEALED 1.22 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THE DAY, A MAJORITY OF THIS MOISTURE IS
SITTING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH HELPS EXPLAIN THESE LIGHT QUICK
IN NATURE SHOWERS. THE ISLAND CHAIN IS REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S MAKING FOR A
PLEASANT AFTERNOON AHEAD. ALONG THE REEF, WINDS ARE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT NEAR 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
PERIODS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED, SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE, INTERACTING WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC, CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. KBYX
DOPPLER RADAR IS DETECTING ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OWED TO THE
MOISTURE FLUXES ACROSS THE NOW NEAR 80F SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WATERS, ALTHOUGH NEARLY ALL SHOWERS ARE LIGHT IN NATURE. CURRENT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
AT THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HOUR.
A RATHER STAGNANT AND MUNDANE FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS ACROSS THE KEYS. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, SUPPORTING CONTINUED
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, ALTHOUGH TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING WET SEASON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS PATTERN FOR APRIL, PASSING
LIGHT FAST-MOVING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING IN THE STRAITS, BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. NEAR SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY WITH GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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