960
FXUS62 KKEY 120211
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1011 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
- LITTLE TO NO RAIN WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUED MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
DATA FROM THE KEY WEST EVENING RADIOSONDE BALLOON INDICATED A
WELL-MIXED LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 5400 FEET ELEVATION,
WHERE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LAYER WAS BASED. VERY DRY AIR
WAS PRESENT ABOVE THIS ALTITUDE. STEADY ENE WINDS PREVAILED IN THE
MIXED LAYER, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO INCREASING WESTERLIES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE. THE GOVERNING
FEATURE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IS A
ROBUST, DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN MEXICO,
WITH A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CELL EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG ENE SURFACE WINDS IN THE KEYS ARE ROOTED IN
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR. AS SUCH, THE AIR MASS IS ON THE
PLEASANT SIDE, WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 60F IN MOST KEYS ISLAND
COMMUNITIES. THE RATHER DRY, DIFLUENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
STABLE AIR MASS PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA, AND OPAQUE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LESS THAN 25
PERCENT, MAINLY FROM TRANSIENT CUMULUS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPED BELOW 50 PERCENT DURING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
HAVE SINCE RECOVERED INTO THE 50S.
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, AND REALLY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
BEFORE SUNRISE, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIPPED A FEW KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, AND THEN SURGED AGAIN WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY,
STEADY ENE WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS PREVAIL WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
23-25 KNOTS AT MOST STATIONS. THE SCRIPPS CDIP BUOY AT SATAN SHOAL
SW OF KEY WEST IS CURRENTLY MEASURING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF
4-5 FEET. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, MAINTAINING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ENE BREEZES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH WINDS SURGING A FEW MORE KNOTS
SUNDAY EVENING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
THROUGH 12/24Z, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 72 83 73 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON 81 72 82 73 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-
GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-
GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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