472
FXUS62 KKEY 121616
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1216 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
- LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUED MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL, ALBEIT BREEZY, DAY IS UNFOLDING ALONG THE
FLORIDA KEYS! VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCHY FIELD OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS, AND OVERLAYING OUR KBYX RADAR SHOWS THAT A FEW OF
THESE CLOUDS MAY BE PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE
DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT, SOMETIMES, OUR
RADAR WILL SHOW REFLECTIVITY VALUES IN PLACES WHERE IT'S ACTUALLY
DETECTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INSTEAD OF SHOWERS. THESE DBZ VALUES
ARE USUALLY NEAR, OR UNDER, APPROXIMATELY 15 DBZ. ONCE VALUES ARE
HIGHER THAN THAT, IT'S A SAFER BET THAT WE ARE SEEING GENUINE
LIGHT SHOWERS. ANOTHER FEATURE NOTED ON THE RADAR IS SEA SPRAY
FROM THE SEEMINGLY NEVERENDING MARINE WINDS. THIS IS MUCH EASIER
TO DIFFERENTIATE FROM SHOWERS SINCE THE STARBURST-LOOKING FEATURE
IS STATIONARY, AS OPPOSED TO THE SPOTTY SHOWERS WE SEE TRACKING
PAST IT.
THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING SHOWS AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
THE VERTICAL PROFILE. THE CALCULATED PWAT WAS 0.84" AND
APPROXIMATELY 0.73" IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND NEAR 840
MB. THIS IS JUST BARELY ABOVE THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF 0.81", SO
THIS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS JUST A LITTLE OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR
THIS DATE. IT'S NO WONDER WE CAN'T GET ANY MEANINGFUL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PERCOLATE. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WERE OBSERVED
THROUGH ALL OF THE LOWER LEVELS, SO THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT GOING
ANYWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS SHOWS
VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F, AND THIS LINES UP WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
MARINE ZONES WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
GLOBAL MEAN ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS DEPICT VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD AND FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE BOUTS OF PEAKS AND LULLS IN THE WINDS OWED TO MESOSCALE
DAILY LAND HEATING AND COOLING, GENERALLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A DECENT
MOISTURE PROFILE UP TO AROUND 900 MB, BUT FORMIDABLE DRY AIR
ALOFT. WHILE A PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
EASTERLIES OVER THE WARM WATERS, MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES WILL
LIKELY MEASURE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK, WINDS WILL MODESTLY SLACKEN. OTHER THAN
THAT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES, EXCEPT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO A FLORIDA SHADOW, AND WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REFRESHEN AFTER SUNSET. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE WINDS AND SEAS.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS IS STILL
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT NEAR 15 KNOTS, AND
FREQUENTLY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ON A SLIGHT, NEAR 10 PERCENT,
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN NEAR EITHER TERMINAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 72 82 73 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 80 73 81 73 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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