684
FXUS62 KKEY 130224
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1024 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
- LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUED MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
ALL THREE GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS REVEAL A REMARKABLE SWATH OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF, THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA,
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMA BANKS. CIMSS MEAN
LAYER ANALYSES TELL THE SAME STORY, WITH DEEP RIDGING ROOTED IN A
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REACHING NORTHEAST FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE 00Z KKEY RAOB SAMPLED A DRY AND STABLE PROFILE
CAPPED BY A POTENT INVERSION NEAR 850 MB. DESPITE THE HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
RACE WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THE
ENHANCED ECHO TOP ALGORITHM FROM THE KBYX RADAR SUGGESTS HEIGHTS
IN THE 8-10 KFT RANGE, RIGHT WHERE THE KKEY RAOB SAMPLED AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER AND A LIMIT TO BUOYANCY. THE LOWER LEVEL PRODUCTS
FROM CIRA'S ALPW INDICATE THIS MEAGER MOISTURE SURGE IN THE
STRAITS MAY BE FOLLOWED UP BY A SECOND SURGE EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, SLIGHT CHANCES (10%) FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN
APPEAR APPROPRIATE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
EASTERLIES OVERNIGHT. ACCOMPANYING THE SWAYING PALM TREES AND
RATTLING SHUTTERS WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED OR PLANNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. FAST-MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. BREEZES MAY BRIEFLY LULL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF AS THIS AREA IS IN THE "SHADOW OF FLORIDA". AS
THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENS, EASTERLY
BREEZES WILL MODESTLY SLACKEN BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR AND GUSTY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 72 82 73 83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 73 81 73 81 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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