037
FXUS62 KKEY 130734
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
334 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.
- LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUED MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED DECENT SHALLOW MOISTURE
UP TO AROUND 850 MB, CAPPED BY A WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE
SOUNDING ALSO DETECTED MODEST VEERING WITH HEIGHT, AND GIVEN THE
CONTINUED FRESHENED BREEZES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE FAVORED MARINE
ZONES SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT. KBYX REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 70S AT THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. GRADIENT WIND ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALOFT, AN
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE RAIN
AMOUNTS AS WELL.
MOST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE GRADIENT THAT HAS SUPPORTED AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY COLLAPSING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
LOCAL WATERS, AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES. THE FRESHENED BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. FAST- MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. BREEZES MAY BRIEFLY LULL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS DUE TO THE HEATING OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER EASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENS, EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
MODESTLY SLACKEN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, IMPACTS TO THE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
WILL BE MINIMAL. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL REMAIN
GUSTY, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 TO 22 KNOTS EXPECTED, MAINLY IN
THE EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 72 82 73 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 80 73 81 73 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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