956
FXUS62 KKEY 131512
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1112 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.
- LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUED MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON KBYX RADAR. THE SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT AND QUICK
TO WAX AND WANE SO MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN FROM THEM WILL BE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELITTE REVEALS MOSTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED. THIS
MORNING'S 12Z KKEY SOUNDING MEASURED 0.67 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS,
CONFIRMING DRY AIR HAS TAKEN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S MAKING FOR A NICE DAY OUTSIDE. ALONG THE REEF, MARINE
LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING EASTERLY WINDS AT NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN
GETTING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PATTERN; BREEZY AND DRY AIR LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THIS UPDATE PACKAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED DECENT SHALLOW MOISTURE
UP TO AROUND 850 MB, CAPPED BY A WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE
SOUNDING ALSO DETECTED MODEST VEERING WITH HEIGHT, AND GIVEN THE
CONTINUED FRESHENED BREEZES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE FAVORED MARINE
ZONES SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT. KBYX REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 70S AT THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. GRADIENT WIND ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALOFT, AN
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 MB
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE RAIN
AMOUNTS AS WELL.
MOST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE GRADIENT THAT HAS SUPPORTED AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY COLLAPSING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK. FAST-MOVING LIGHT
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
BREEZES MAY BRIEFLY LULL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DUE TO THE HEATING OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENS,
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL MODESTLY SLACKEN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL BUT AT
THIS TIME ADDING VCSH IS UNNECESSARY. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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