136
FXUS62 KKEY 021423
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLIES TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL THEN CLOCK NORTHWEST, THEN
NORTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY PRESSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS.
- A WETTER AND THUNDERY PATTERN WILL BEGIN MOVING IN TONIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE EXPECT TO PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT
AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WINDS ARE OVER-PERFORMING A LITTLE BIT THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WHICH PROMPTED THE NEED FOR AN EARLIER THAN USUAL
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY SEEING 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF OUR MARINE PLATFORMS THIS MORNING AND HAVE ALREADY PEAK
AND BEGUN TO DECREASE THIS HOUR. OTHERWISE, IT'S QUITE MUGGY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S. THE NICE BREEZE WE'RE SEEING WILL TAPER OFF
THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF.
A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS AT BAY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
TO OUR NORTH, WE CONTINUE TO TRACK A COLD FRONT SLOWLY LURKING
IT'S WAY TOWARDS US. IT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JACKSONVILLE,
WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. THIS FRONT WILL NOT REACH
THE KEYS UNTIL SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD BRING SOME
WELCOMING RAINS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZES HAVE PEAKED THIS
MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TODAY, REACHING THE KEYS LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT APPROACH,
EXPECT WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH, AND EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING STARTING LATE THIS EVENING AND PEAK ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AS
EARLY AS 03Z/3RD WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12-15Z.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST AFTER 06Z/3RD BUT WILL
LEAVE FOR FUTURE AMENDMENTS AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING INCREASES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND, WITH ASSISTANCE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. WHILE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME CONFLUENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE, AT LEAST FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING, THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH VESTIGES OF EARLIER LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP
CONVECTION AT BAY. AN EARLY MORNING WIND SURGE WILL WEAR OFF
TODAY, WITH BREEZES BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
HOLDING IN THE MID 70S.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE
SOUTHWARDS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE NEARLY
PHASED TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHILE
CONFLUENCE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BRINGS IN
MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CLIMB TO JUST SHY OF 2
INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DRIVING AN ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARDS INTO THE KEYS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS NOT AN UNREASONABLE SOLUTION, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH. HAVE NUDGED RAIN CHANCES TO HIGH CHANCE FOR TONIGHT.
AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH
THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH LATE SUNDAY, ADDING SUPPORT TO AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE AND VERY WET COLUMN. IN ADDITION, THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRESS SOUTHWARDS IN FITS AND STARTS THROUGH THE
KEYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND, LIKELY PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS, EFFECTS OF CONVECTION, AND WEAK FLOW, AND THE PASSAGE
OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO
ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS SLIPPING TO
JUST ABOVE 70.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK THE UPPER MID LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, FOLLOWED UP BY RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA, BRINGING IN A
MORE USUAL LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS RANGING
IN THE LOWER 70S. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL STEADILY TAPER
OFF TO SLIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 87 77 85 74 / 0 50 50 50
MARATHON 87 78 85 74 / 0 40 50 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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