334
FXUS62 KKEY 021955
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
355 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING.
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLIES TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL THEN CLOCK NORTHWEST, THEN
NORTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY PRESSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS.
- A WETTER AND THUNDERY PATTERN WILL BEGIN MOVING IN TONIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE EXPECT TO PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT
AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY SLACKEN BRIEFLY TO LIGHT TO GENTLE IN THE LATE EVENING, BEFORE
FRESHENING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY A WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INITIALLY, FOLLOWED BY A TIGHTENING OF THE
GRADIENT AS A FRONT APPRAOCHES FROM THE NORTH. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK UPTICK IN
NORTHERLY BREEZES IN THE WAKE. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ON MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AS THIS HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, EXPECT A
RETURN TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE,
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF
TOWARDS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION IS
LEADING TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
HOWEVER, CHANCES LOOK TO BE BEST AFTER 03Z/3RD WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND, WITH ASSISTANCE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. WHILE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME CONFLUENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE, AT LEAST FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING, THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH VESTIGES OF EARLIER LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP
CONVECTION AT BAY. AN EARLY MORNING WIND SURGE WILL WEAR OFF
TODAY, WITH BREEZES BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
HOLDING IN THE MID 70S.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE
SOUTHWARDS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE NEARLY
PHASED TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHILE
CONFLUENCE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BRINGS IN
MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CLIMB TO JUST SHY OF 2
INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DRIVING AN ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARDS INTO THE KEYS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS NOT AN UNREASONABLE SOLUTION, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH. HAVE NUDGED RAIN CHANCES TO HIGH CHANCE FOR TONIGHT.
AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH
THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH LATE SUNDAY, ADDING SUPPORT TO AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE AND VERY WET COLUMN. IN ADDITION, THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRESS SOUTHWARDS IN FITS AND STARTS THROUGH THE
KEYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND, LIKELY PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS, EFFECTS OF CONVECTION, AND WEAK FLOW, AND THE PASSAGE
OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO
ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS SLIPPING TO
JUST ABOVE 70.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK THE UPPER MID LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, FOLLOWED UP BY RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA, BRINGING IN A
MORE USUAL LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS RANGING
IN THE LOWER 70S. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL STEADILY TAPER
OFF TO SLIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 77 85 74 84 / 50 60 60 20
MARATHON 78 85 74 83 / 50 60 70 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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