962
FXUS62 KKEY 030201
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1001 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH PEAK CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
- MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS QUITE THE MEAN LAYER LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. TO START MAY. THIS
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL TEMPERATURES ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS A RESULT. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF AND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA (SOUTH OF TAMPA TO THE SPACE COAST). THE KEYS
REMAIN IN A SORT OF COL REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE HAS RETREATED INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC LEAVING THE KEYS IN WEAK GRADIENT FLOW.
MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE KEYS ARE RECORDING
VARIABLE BREEZES NEAR 5 KNOTS AS A RESULT. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN
QUIET ACROSS THE KEYS COVERAGE AREA MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE FIRST SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST BEGINNING TO ENCROACH
ON THE SE GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAIN QUITE WARM THIS EVENING
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE
CONVECTION TO BE WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT WHICH IS STILL
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 00Z
EVENING SOUNDING IS UNSTABLE. THE CAPE VALUES MEASURED WERE AROUND
2000 J/KG ALONG WITH A PWAT VALUE OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS NEAR
THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THE WIND PROFILE DISPLAYS A
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 1000 FT WITH CONTINUED SUBTLE VEERING TO 3000
FT. MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR THE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME
ACTIVE. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THAT IS OF CONCERN. THE
SOUNDING DOES DISPLAY QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 750 MB AND THEN AGAIN ABOVE 700 MB. IF
WE CAN OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR, THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE. IF NOT, ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY
ENTRAIN THIS DRY AIR AND CHOKE OFF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAUSING
QUICK DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, MAINLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE KEYS LEADING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL
PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF OVER THE FOLLOWING COUPLE OF DAYS.
A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
SUPPORT A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
SHIFTING CLOCKWISE, EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM OUTSIDE THE SE GULF WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING. THEN, NEW CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT FOR THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING UNCERTAIN. THE BEST
CHANCE TIME APPEARS NOW TO BE 03/06Z-12Z WITH A LULL DURING THE
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. ALSO, BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 87 77 85 74 / 0 50 60 60
MARATHON 87 78 85 74 / 0 50 60 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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