319
FXUS62 KKEY 030802
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
402 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH PEAK CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
- MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, POSSIBLY SURGING BRIEFLY TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE THIS EVENING.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL TREND DOWNWARDS MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A PHASED MID LATITUDE TROUGH REACHES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TRAILING WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, MODEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS MOVED IN
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AND CONTRIBUTED TO AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THUS FAR, PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS AFFECTED THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, WINDS ARE GENTLE SOUTHERLIES. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLIES HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
MORNING WITH NEARLY ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THE FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN ROTATING OUT OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH, A NEW SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DRIVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GULF, REACHING FLORIDA BY
THIS EVENING. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TODAY. HOWEVER, THE LULL IN ACTIVITY
LIKELY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS EXERTING
ITS INFLUENCE AND THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PRESS SOUTHWARDS NEAR THE KEYS TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, SHIFTING BREEZES NORTHWEST TO NORTH. A BRIEF MODEST
FRESHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS HAPPENS, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL SLIP A FEW DEGREES BACK
TO WHERE WE WERE BEFORE THE SOUTHEASTERLIES KICKED IN.
WHILE THE GULF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BROAD MID LATITUDE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA STRETCHING SOUTHWARDS PAST CUBA. THIS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR
THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE, ALTHOUGH TO
A LESSER EXTENT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MID SHOWER CHANCES AND
SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND FORECAST
WILL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY OFF OF
FLORIDA'S SOUTHEAST COAST, AND WINDS WANTING TO SURGE SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE MOVING SOUTHWARDS INTO FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER SURGE MONDAY EVENING.
BY MID WEEK THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH
OUT. THIS WILL RETURN THE KEYS TO THE MORE USUAL LIGHT TO GENTLE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. MEANWHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MARCH EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GULF, HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
FREE ATMOSPHERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP TO SLIGHT WITH LIMITED TO
NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTH OF EAST STREAMLINES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO A MUGGY MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES DOWN INTO
THE KEYS. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER. SOME STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, BLINDING DOWNPOURS, AND AT TIMES, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. WEATHER WILL CALM DOWN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE STRAITS AND RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA. EXPECT LIGHT BREEZES TO SHIFT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEASTERLIES TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER THE HIGH WILL GAIN FULL CONTROL AND RETURN THE KEYS TO
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY. AS
A RESULT, EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BRINGING WITH THEM MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS, GUSTY SHIFTING
BREEZES, AND POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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