309
FXUS62 KKEY 031547
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1147 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON PEAKING TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
- WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY POSSIBLY SURGE BRIEFLY TO GENTLE
TO MODERATE THIS EVENING.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL TREND DOWNWARDS MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE ATMOSPHERE IS CERTAINLY BEING FINICKY THIS MORNING. SOME
RESIDUAL DRY AIR AT AROUND 700 MB LIKELY LIMITED OUR RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER, JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN,
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSTABLE AND RIPE FOR CONVECTION. TO NO SURPRISE
AS THE FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE HAWK AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WATERS,
SHOWERS CAME BACK TO LIFE. MEANWHILE, LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM
LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF
WATERS AND A NEW BATCH IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
HI-RES MODELS OFFER LITTLE MORE CLARITY AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEY KEEP FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON WHERE
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE. SOME HAVE THE ISLAND
CHAIN SEEING A SURGE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHILE OTHERS KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OFF THE ISLANDS THEMSELVES
AND MORE SO ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. FOR THIS
REASON, MADE THE DIFFICULT CHOICE TO NOT ADJUST POPS. THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND IT COULD EASILY TURN IN A "WE ZIGGED WHEN WE
SHOULD'VE ZAGGED". THE SAVING GRACE IS THAT THIS IS AN ANABATIC
FRONT (ANAFRONT) WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCATED BEHIND THE
FRONT. THEREFORE, THE BEST MOISTURE HAS YET TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ULTIMATELY, REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS AFTERNOON SHAPES
OUT, THE EVENING SHOULD SEE RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES PEAKING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE, BREEZES HAVE CLOCKED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH WITH GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES. BREEZES WILL
SLACKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON BRIEFLY, THEN SURGE THIS EVENING AND
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. EXPECT BREEZES TO PEAK AND
LULL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC. BREEZES RETURN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND FROM THE
NORTH BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
ASSESSED FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A PHASED MID LATITUDE TROUGH REACHES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TRAILING WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, MODEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS MOVED IN
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AND CONTRIBUTED TO AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THUS FAR, PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS AFFECTED THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, WINDS ARE GENTLE SOUTHERLIES. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLIES HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
MORNING WITH NEARLY ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THE FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN ROTATING OUT OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH, A NEW SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DRIVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GULF, REACHING FLORIDA BY
THIS EVENING. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TODAY. HOWEVER, THE LULL IN ACTIVITY
LIKELY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS EXERTING
ITS INFLUENCE AND THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PRESS SOUTHWARDS NEAR THE KEYS TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, SHIFTING BREEZES NORTHWEST TO NORTH. A BRIEF MODEST
FRESHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS HAPPENS, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL SLIP A FEW DEGREES BACK
TO WHERE WE WERE BEFORE THE SOUTHEASTERLIES KICKED IN.
WHILE THE GULF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BROAD MID LATITUDE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA STRETCHING SOUTHWARDS PAST CUBA. THIS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR
THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE, ALTHOUGH TO
A LESSER EXTENT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MID SHOWER CHANCES AND
SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND FORECAST
WILL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY OFF OF
FLORIDA'S SOUTHEAST COAST, AND WINDS WANTING TO SURGE SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE MOVING SOUTHWARDS INTO FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER SURGE MONDAY EVENING.
BY MID WEEK THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH
OUT. THIS WILL RETURN THE KEYS TO THE MORE USUAL LIGHT TO GENTLE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. MEANWHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MARCH EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GULF, HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
FREE ATMOSPHERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP TO SLIGHT WITH LIMITED TO
NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTH OF EAST STREAMLINES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO A MUGGY MID 70S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 75 84 76 / 70 60 20 40
MARATHON 85 75 84 76 / 70 70 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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