492
FXUS62 KKEY 032006
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
406 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING AND PEAKING TONIGHT, THEN
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
- NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, BUT QUICKLY RETURN NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES IN.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL TREND DOWNWARDS MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CREATING A CHAOTIC WIND FIELD FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTION IS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. MAINLY SEEING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE
REEF TRACT AND FLORIDA BAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF A QUICKLY APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THIS
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC,
EXPECT WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND BRIEFLY SURGE.
THEREAFTER, AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC,
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
CONVECTION HAS BRIEFLY CLEARED OUT OF THE EYW TERMINAL WITH THE
BACK EDGE MOVING THROUGH MTH. EXPECTING A BRIEF LULL WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A PHASED MID LATITUDE TROUGH REACHES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A TRAILING WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, MODEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS MOVED IN
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AND CONTRIBUTED TO AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THUS FAR, PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS AFFECTED THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, WINDS ARE GENTLE SOUTHERLIES. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLIES HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
MORNING WITH NEARLY ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING ABOVE 80 DEGREES
AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THE FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN ROTATING OUT OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH, A NEW SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL DRIVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GULF, REACHING FLORIDA BY
THIS EVENING. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TODAY. HOWEVER, THE LULL IN ACTIVITY
LIKELY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS EXERTING
ITS INFLUENCE AND THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PRESS SOUTHWARDS NEAR THE KEYS TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, SHIFTING BREEZES NORTHWEST TO NORTH. A BRIEF MODEST
FRESHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS HAPPENS, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL SLIP A FEW DEGREES BACK
TO WHERE WE WERE BEFORE THE SOUTHEASTERLIES KICKED IN.
WHILE THE GULF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BROAD MID LATITUDE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA STRETCHING SOUTHWARDS PAST CUBA. THIS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR
THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE, ALTHOUGH TO
A LESSER EXTENT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MID SHOWER CHANCES AND
SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND FORECAST
WILL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY OFF OF
FLORIDA'S SOUTHEAST COAST, AND WINDS WANTING TO SURGE SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE MOVING SOUTHWARDS INTO FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER SURGE MONDAY EVENING.
BY MID WEEK THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH
OUT. THIS WILL RETURN THE KEYS TO THE MORE USUAL LIGHT TO GENTLE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. MEANWHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MARCH EASTWARDS ACROSS THE GULF, HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
FREE ATMOSPHERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP TO SLIGHT WITH LIMITED TO
NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTH OF EAST STREAMLINES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO A MUGGY MID 70S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 75 84 76 / 70 60 20 40
MARATHON 85 75 84 76 / 70 70 30 40
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 75 84 76 86 / 60 20 40 20
MARATHON 75 84 76 85 / 70 30 40 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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