305
FXUS62 KKEY 040225
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS RAIN CHANCES PEAK. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
RAINFALL REMAINS LOW WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN
OTHERS.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE BREEZES THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, BUT QUICKLY RETURN
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES IN.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL TREND DOWNWARDS MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS HAS
BEEN THE INSTIGATOR FOR ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND NOW THIS EVENING. KBYX RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER KEYS AS WELL AS SURROUNDING NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WANED WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
FORMING RIGHT NEAR LONG KEY AND THEN RACING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MIAMI'S COVERAGE AREA WITH THIS CELL HOLDING ON TILL IT GOT TO
BIMINI WHERE IT QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THE RECENT HOURS HAVE BEEN
PLAGUED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS
THE NORTH CUBA COASTLINE. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN FRISKY AND HAVE
WARRANTED NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND HAVE BEEN
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE SE GULF. MRMS DATA SHOWS VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS WITH WIDESPREAD 6 HOURLY ESTIMATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF
GREATER 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MARATHON AND LOWER
MATECUMBE KEY. SINCE THE FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING
VARIABLE BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS DUE TO CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE LOWER KEYS WHERE RAIN HAS YET TO FALL, AND IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LATEST RADAR INDICATES A BOUNDARY SLIDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SE GULF ALONG AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE
STRAITS. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY MOIST PROFILE FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 625 MB BEFORE DRYING OUT ABOVE 625 MB.
INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL WITH A CAPE VALUE MEASURED TO BE AROUND
1500 J/KG WHICH IS MOST LIKELY EVEN HIGHER ACROSS THE STRAITS. THE
PWAT VALUE MEASURED IS QUITE HIGH AT 2.03 INCHES. THIS IS NOT TOO
FAR FROM THE MAX PWAT FOR THE DATE. JUST GOES TO SHOW HOW MOIST
IT ACTUALLY IS OUTSIDE. OVERALL, WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE
STRAITS AND A BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD NORTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN, WE SEE NO REASON WHY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WON'T REMAIN
ACTIVE. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY EVEN
RAMP UP FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT TO
GENTLE VARIABLE BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL BRIEFLY FRESHEN AND CLOCK BACK
TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BREEZES WILL THEN SLACKEN AND CLOCK EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA
AND EXPANDS IN THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE DIURNAL
INFLUENCES WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON WINDS. RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
THEN GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAINS VOID OF ANY
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WITH MOST OF IT ACROSS THE STRAITS.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE, ESPECIALLY AFTER 04/02Z THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE CHAIN WITH VCTS INCLUDED FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY VCSH FOR MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING VIS AND CIGS TO AT
LEAST MVFR, THOUGH, THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 75 84 76 / 70 60 20 40
MARATHON 85 75 84 76 / 70 70 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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