990
FXUS62 KKEY 040834
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
434 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME BROADLY NORTHERLY TODAY, AND NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
EXPECT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY UNTIL LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES BECOME SLIM TO NONE BY MID WEEK, AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE, LIGHT BREEZES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE LONG EXPECTED
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS SHIFT, ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS IN MOST LOCATIONS TO THE A DEGREE
OR TWO ABOVE 70. TEMPERATURES NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
LOWER KEYS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. MEANWHILE,
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A
PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
A GOOD AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. AFTER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY IS NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH THAT
SAID, A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO BLANKET
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
FOR TODAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AND MODEST
CAPE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC, LEAVING A BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT REACHES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAIN AND THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL EASE
BACK CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO THE ABOVE AND AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY CREEPS MORE FULLY INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TURNING
FURTHER NORTH. WITH THAT SAID, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO THE LINGERING COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, AND WEAKENING SUPPORT, BOTH ALOFT
AND THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, AND A
STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF AMERICA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY WASH OUT THE LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. UNTIL THEN, LIGHT SURFACE BREEZES WILL QUITE
OFTEN BE VARIABLE, THEN BECOME PREVAILING LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS, PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH INCREASING LOWER
LEVEL INHIBITION. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL OUT OF THE FORECAST
BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES START BRINGING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE HIGH AND UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE LOW. DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO A MUGGY MID
70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL SHIFT CLOCKWISE, BECOMING
BROADLY NORTHERLY TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF
THE KEYS THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
STRONG, AND PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY BREEZES, AND AT TIMES, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE WET PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
TUESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK. BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME A CLOSER TO NORMAL LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLIES.
WIND DIRECTION MAY BE POORLY DEFINED AT TIMES UNTIL THE RIDGE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE WET PATTERN AFFECTING THE KEYS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
THERE WILL STILL BE A MID TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTAMINATED
BY CONVECTION. IN GENERAL, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF
THE NORTH.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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