653
FXUS62 KKEY 041445
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT,
BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME BROADLY NORTHERLY TODAY, AND NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
EXPECT PERIODS OF VARIABILITY UNTIL LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES BECOME SLIM TO NONE BY MID WEEK, AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
CONVECTION REMAINED ONGOING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS
MORNING BUT HAS RECENTLY MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA AND DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE. MEANWHILE, WATCHING NEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF SOUTH FLORIDA THAT ARE
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR WATERS. OUR IMMEDIATE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY IS LARGELY PRECIPITATION FREE THIS HOUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. WINDS REMAIN QUITE CHAOTIC WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, WHILE MORE DECIDEDLY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH FOR THE LOWER KEYS.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOWER TODAY, THEY ARE NOT
NIL. HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION TRYING TO RE-FIRE
MAINLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE GREATEST. IN ADDITION, SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PLUS A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER KEYS.
THEREFORE, KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN
IN A CHAOTIC STATE AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS NEARBY. THIS
IS CREATING GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AT TIMES
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BLINDING DOWNPOURS. THE ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CALM DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARYING TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT DUE TO THE LINGERING REMNANT
BOUNDARY. BY MID WEEK THE WESTERN FLANK OF A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND ESTABLISH A MORE NORMAL LIGHT TO
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY NEW
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR
CIGS, OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST TODAY, BECOMING POTENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE, LIGHT BREEZES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE LONG EXPECTED
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS SHIFT, ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS IN MOST LOCATIONS TO THE A DEGREE
OR TWO ABOVE 70. TEMPERATURES NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
LOWER KEYS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. MEANWHILE,
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A
PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
A GOOD AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. AFTER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY IS NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH THAT
SAID, A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO BLANKET
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
FOR TODAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AND MODEST
CAPE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC, LEAVING A BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT REACHES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAIN AND THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL EASE
BACK CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO THE ABOVE AND AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY CREEPS MORE FULLY INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TURNING
FURTHER NORTH. WITH THAT SAID, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO THE LINGERING COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, AND WEAKENING SUPPORT, BOTH ALOFT
AND THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, AND A
STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF AMERICA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY WASH OUT THE LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. UNTIL THEN, LIGHT SURFACE BREEZES WILL QUITE
OFTEN BE VARIABLE, THEN BECOME PREVAILING LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS, PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH INCREASING LOWER
LEVEL INHIBITION. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL OUT OF THE FORECAST
BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES START BRINGING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE HIGH AND UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE LOW. DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO A MUGGY MID
70S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 76 86 77 / 30 20 10 10
MARATHON 84 76 85 78 / 30 40 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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