447
FXUS62 KKEY 042002
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
402 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TONIGHT, BUT
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE THIS
EVENING THEN DECREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT PERIODS OF
VARIABILITY UNTIL LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES BECOME SLIM TO NONE BY MID WEEK, AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN
IN A CHAOTIC STATE AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS NEARBY IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS IS CREATING GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SOUTHEAST GULF WHILE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS, AT TIMES FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BLINDING
DOWNPOURS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CALM DOWN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE
BOUNDARY STARTS WASHING OUT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARYING TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT DUE TO THE
LINGERING REMNANT BOUNDARY. BY MID WEEK THE WESTERN FLANK OF A
BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND ESTABLISH A MORE
NORMAL LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL ONLY BE
INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM AN OCCASIONAL PASSING
SHOWER. OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE, LIGHT BREEZES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE LONG EXPECTED
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS SHIFT, ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS IN MOST LOCATIONS TO THE A DEGREE
OR TWO ABOVE 70. TEMPERATURES NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
LOWER KEYS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. MEANWHILE,
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A
PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
A GOOD AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. AFTER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY IS NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH THAT
SAID, A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO BLANKET
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
FOR TODAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AND MODEST
CAPE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC, LEAVING A BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT REACHES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAIN AND THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL EASE
BACK CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO THE ABOVE AND AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY CREEPS MORE FULLY INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TURNING
FURTHER NORTH. WITH THAT SAID, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO THE LINGERING COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, AND WEAKENING SUPPORT, BOTH ALOFT
AND THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, AND A
STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF AMERICA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND SLOWLY WASH OUT THE LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. UNTIL THEN, LIGHT SURFACE BREEZES WILL QUITE
OFTEN BE VARIABLE, THEN BECOME PREVAILING LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS, PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH INCREASING LOWER
LEVEL INHIBITION. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL OUT OF THE FORECAST
BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES START BRINGING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE HIGH AND UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE LOW. DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO A MUGGY MID
70S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 76 86 77 / 30 20 10 10
MARATHON 84 76 85 78 / 30 40 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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