570
FXUS62 KKEY 051625
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1225 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH MOST
OF, IF NOT THE REST OF, THE WEEK.
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY ASSUME A NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING, AND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
AND THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME HEAT RISK CONCERNS AS THESE WILL
BE THE FIRST PREVAILING HIGHER DEW POINTS OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A WEAK, LINGERING BOUNDARY IS STILL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE VERY
DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS AS NOTED BY A BROKEN LINE OF CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED POCKETS OF SHOWERS. THE PARENT TROUGHING HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME TO NUDGE EASTWARD AWAY FROM US, BUT CIMSS MEAN LAYER
WIND ANALYSIS CONFIRMS THE TROUGH IS SLOWLY CRAWLING AWAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND
THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING SUGGESTS WE MAY BE IN THE CLEAR WITH RESPECT
TO ANYMORE RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT, THERE ARE SO MANY WEAK INVERSIONS THROUGH THE PROFILE,
THAT THE TEMPERATURE LINE LOOKS LIKE A CHRISTMAS TREE. THE WIND
PROFILE THROUGH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IS BACKING FROM NORTH TO
WEST, AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
NOTABLE, LONGSTANDING SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR
ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. THIS GIVES US NOONTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 90F, SO
IT LOOKS LIKE OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF SUMMERTIME IS ON OUR
DOORSTEP.
THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THIS AFTERNOON UPDATE IS TO REMOVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE, 10%, OF SHOWERS FOR THE KEYS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PROPOSED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER MAY POP UP ACROSS THE DISTANT
FLORIDA STRAITS DUE TO A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY, OTHERWISE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS, BUT
OCCASIONAL UNREPRESENTATIVE OBSERVATIONS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO CLOUD FORMATION DIRECTLY OVER EITHER AIRPORT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY ASSUME A NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY DIRECTION, BUT CROSSWIND CONCERNS ARE LOW DUE TO THE LOW
MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ROBUST MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING THROUGH
THE COLUMN. AS A RESULT, A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO RAIN FREE WEATHER BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
OFTEN VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY
DISSIPATES AND RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA. WITH NOTHING TO KICK OUT THE IN-SITU AIRMASS, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO LARGELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND BE
ALIGNED ACROSS CUBA ON THURSDAY AND FLATTEN AS IT TRANSITIONS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NOSE OF LOW LEVEL INHIBITION STRENGTHENING. AS A
RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BROADEN AS IT BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLIES. THIS FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S, OVERNIGHT LOWS STRUGGLING TO
FALL BELOW 80, AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MUGGY MID 70S
RANGE.
UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY HIGH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A NEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
UNITED STATES, FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOWER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE PINCHED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
AND SETUP A MOISTENING AND INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW. MEANWHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND HELP TO BRING IN
FRESHENING SOUTHEASTERLIES. ALTOGETHER, THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR
TO ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. DAY TIME HIGHS MAY
SLIP A DEGREE OR TWO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 80.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 86 77 87 79 / 10 0 0 0
MARATHON 85 77 86 79 / 10 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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