324
FXUS62 KKEY 051905
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH MOST
OF, IF NOT THE REST OF, THE WEEK.
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
AND THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME HEAT RISK CONCERNS AS THESE WILL
BE THE FIRST PREVAILING HIGHER DEW POINTS OF THE SEASON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
ASSUME AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN NEAR ZERO PERCENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING, AND WILL ASSUME AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIDGING CURRENTLY
BUILDING IN WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN NEAR
ZERO PERCENT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ROBUST MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING THROUGH
THE COLUMN. AS A RESULT, A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO RAIN FREE WEATHER BY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
OFTEN VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY
DISSIPATES AND RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA. WITH NOTHING TO KICK OUT THE IN-SITU AIRMASS, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO LARGELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND BE
ALIGNED ACROSS CUBA ON THURSDAY AND FLATTEN AS IT TRANSITIONS
INTO THE ATLANTIC. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NOSE OF LOW LEVEL INHIBITION STRENGTHENING. AS A
RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BROADEN AS IT BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLIES. THIS FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S, OVERNIGHT LOWS STRUGGLING TO
FALL BELOW 80, AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MUGGY MID 70S
RANGE.
UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY HIGH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A NEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
UNITED STATES, FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOWER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE PINCHED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
AND SETUP A MOISTENING AND INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW. MEANWHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND HELP TO BRING IN
FRESHENING SOUTHEASTERLIES. ALTOGETHER, THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR
TO ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. DAY TIME HIGHS MAY
SLIP A DEGREE OR TWO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 80.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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