537
FXUS62 KKEY 060225
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH MOST
OF, IF NOT THE REST OF, THE WEEK.
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
AND THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME HEAT RISK CONCERNS AS THESE WILL
BE THE FIRST PREVAILING HIGHER DEW POINTS OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, MEXICO, AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS FLORIDA. FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THIS
RIDGE ONLY SUBTLY AFFECTING THE KEYS LEADING TO A WEAK GRADIENT.
MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
RECORDING VARIABLE BREEZES NEAR 5 KNOTS. GOES 19 TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE KEYS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH PWATS ESTIMATED TO 0.8
INCHES TO 1.1 INCHES. THIS IS BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN VOID OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A RESULT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BETWEEN 530-630 PM WHEN
A SHOWER MOVED THROUGH OCEAN REEF. THIS SHOWER QUICKLY DISSIPATED
ONCE IT EMERGED OVER HAWK CHANNEL. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SHOWS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE KEYS WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS STREAMING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN NEAR 80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 70
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING IS MUCH DRIER TONIGHT COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. SOME MOISTURE REMAINS IN A SHALLOW LAYER BETWEEN
975-925 MB WITH ANOTHER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 250-200 MB.
THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 1.04 INCHES WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER THAN LAST EVENING. BASED ON THE VARIABLE WIND FLOW, LOWER
MOISTURE, AND NO SOURCE OF LIFT, THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS
DRY AND UNCHANGED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A POORLY
DEFINED WIND FIELD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST
UNTIL RIDGING CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THAT POINT, WINDS WILL BECOME A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY APPROPRIATE LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZE. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH VERY WEAK FORCING
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY WHEN
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES STRENGTHEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE, BRINGING
IN INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND OPENING THE DOOR TO
MARITIME SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE WII HOURS OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 86 77 87 79 / 10 0 0 0
MARATHON 85 77 86 79 / 10 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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