592
FXUS62 KKEY 060845
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, THIS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL ELEVATED HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
- LIMITED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GENERALLY NEBULOUS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ACROSS THE GULF, THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND NIGHTTIME GOES-19 LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELDS PLACE AN
ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA,
WITH ITS AXIS BISECTING SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MEANWHILE ALOFT,
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED RISING HEIGHTS ABOVE THE
825 ISOBARIC SURFACE, AS AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS,
ULTIMATELY DICTATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, AND KBYX IS VOID
OF ANY METEOROLOGICAL ECHO RETURNS (ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PLENTY OF
NORTHWARD-MIGRATING BIRDS DETECTED).
A RATHER ROUTINE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE ALSO AMPLIFYING. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
SUPPLY MODEST WARM AIR AND DEW POINT ADVECTION TO THE KEYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY, WITH NEAR-NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE SITS ON TOP OF
THE KEYS BY THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (NEAR
90F AT A FEW ISLAND COMMUNITIES), AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
GET BELOW 80F FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS IN THE STAGNANT LIGHT
FLOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST ENSEMBLE MEAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE KEYS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE BOUNDARY WILL LOSE BAROCLINICITY AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA, LIKELY STALLING BEFORE EVENTUALLY
WASHING OUT. HOWEVER, THIS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A WINDOW OF SLIGHT
TO LOW-END CHANCE RAIN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME, GIVEN LOW- TO MODERATE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SERIES
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE, MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY, BREEZES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
EASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS WILL ALSO YIELD NEAR- NIL RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY MORNING. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 87 79 88 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 86 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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