928
FXUS62 KKEY 061504
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1104 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, THIS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL ELEVATED HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
- LIMITED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
A BEAUTIFUL FLORIDA MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE KEYS THIS
MORNING AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE IN PLACE! VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A HANDFUL OF FAIR WEATHER, LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA, AS WELL AS A VERY
THIN VEIL OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. LOOPING THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACTUALLY HELPS TO SHOW THE ANTICYCLONIC NATURE OF THE
RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING IT. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM THIS
MORNING SHOWS A REMARKABLY DRY SOUNDING EXCEPT NEAR 2000 FEET AND
38,000 FEET. THE TWO AREAS OF MODEST INCREASED MOISTURE SEEM TO
COINCIDE WITH THE VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE WE HAVE TO SPEAK OF.
THE CALCULATED PWAT OF 1.05" IS ALMOST HALF OF AN INCH LESS THAN
24 HOURS AGO, AND CIMSS PWAT DEPICTS AN AVERAGE VALUE JUST UNDER
AN INCH ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY
THAT OUR AIR, EVEN THOUGH IT MAY FEEL A LITTLE HUMID OUTSIDE, IS
DRY ENOUGH TO THWART ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, AND
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S, BUT THIS IS ONLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR WHAT IS TO COME.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE COMING DAYS, AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT HEAT RISK WILL BE A NOTABLE CONCERN. BY THE WEEKEND, THERE
WILL BE LITTLE, IF ANY, TEMPERATURE RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AFTER HEAT
INDEX VALUES DURING THE DAY WILL APPROACH THE 100F MARK. SINCE
THIS IS THE FIRST REAL PUSH OF SUSTAINED HOT CONDITIONS OF THE
SEASONS, EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED TO MINDFUL OF HYDRATION, AND HOW
MUCH TIME IS SPEND OUTDOORS.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES OR UPDATES NEEDED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
A RATHER ROUTINE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE ALSO AMPLIFYING. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
SUPPLY MODEST WARM AIR AND DEW POINT ADVECTION TO THE KEYS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, WITH NEAR-NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE
SITS ON TOP OF THE KEYS BY THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR 90F AT A FEW ISLAND COMMUNITIES), AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET BELOW 80F FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS IN THE
STAGNANT LIGHT FLOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST ENSEMBLE MEAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE KEYS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE BOUNDARY WILL LOSE BAROCLINICITY AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA, LIKELY STALLING BEFORE EVENTUALLY
WASHING OUT. HOWEVER, THIS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A WINDOW OF SLIGHT
TO LOW-END CHANCE RAIN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME, GIVEN LOW- TO MODERATE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN, AND
DOMINATING THE PATTERN, WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BREEZES MAY
BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE, SO RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE VERY LOW, NEAR ZERO.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY NOT BE UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH ONLY FEW
TO SCT CLOUDS NEAR FL025. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAY BECOME
VARIABLE AT TIMES, BUT CROSSWIND CONCERNS ARE LOW DUE TO WINDS
PEAKING NEAR 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 79 89 80 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 85 79 86 80 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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