181
FXUS62 KKEY 061742
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
142 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, THIS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL ELEVATED HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
- LIMITED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXACERBATE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VIRTUALLY NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL BE BASED SOMEWHERE NEAR FL025 AND 030, AND WILL RANGE
IN COVERAGE FROM FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
A RATHER ROUTINE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE ALSO
AMPLIFYING. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL SUPPLY MODEST WARM AIR AND
DEW POINT ADVECTION TO THE KEYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, WITH NEAR-NIL
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE SITS ON TOP OF THE KEYS BY THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (NEAR 90F AT A FEW ISLAND
COMMUNITIES), AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET BELOW 80F FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS IN THE STAGNANT LIGHT FLOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST ENSEMBLE MEAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE KEYS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE BOUNDARY WILL LOSE BAROCLINICITY AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA, LIKELY STALLING BEFORE EVENTUALLY
WASHING OUT. HOWEVER, THIS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A WINDOW OF SLIGHT
TO LOW-END CHANCE RAIN AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME, GIVEN LOW- TO MODERATE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN, AND
DOMINATING THE PATTERN, WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BREEZES MAY
BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE, SO RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE VERY LOW, NEAR ZERO.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY NOT BE UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 89 80 90 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 79 86 80 86 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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